Beer imports (STZ, TAP)
The Beer Institute estimates domestic tax paid shipments by beer brewers decreased by 4.0% to 13 million barrels in April. YTD domestic shipments are down 3.5% compared to the first four months of 2022. Shipments have decreased in three of the four months in 2023. Imported shipments decreased 11% YOY to 3.2M barrels. The decline was driven by Mexican imports which were down 9.2% against difficult comparisons. Imports from the Netherlands decreased by 24.2%, Ireland decreased by 28.3%, Canada decreased by 10.1%, and Belgium decreased by 57.6%. Imports decreased 2.4% in the first four months of the year. Expect a change in trend in May with the fallout from Bud Light’s lost share.
Snacking youth (PEP, HSY, UTZ)
Snacking is one of our secular growth themes. Kroger’s market research firm 84.51°, devoted its recent Consumer Digest on understanding the snacker. The report was based on the responses of 450 Kroger shoppers.
- The Digest said younger shoppers snack the most. 74% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 years old said they snack multiple times each day. 52% of respondents between 35 and 54 snack multiple times and 50% of respondents between 55 and 74 do as well.
- 60% of respondents said they are snacking the same amount as the prior year, but those under 35 years old were more likely to snack more often.
- The top five snacks consumed regularly were potato chips at 69%, fruits at 67%, cheeses at 67%, crackers at 67%, and popcorn at 58%.
- Snacks were most often consumed in the afternoon.
- 64% of shoppers said they were extremely concerned with inflation. However, that was the lowest level in the past year. 41% of shoppers said they are purchasing more private label and 38% said they are using coupons more often.
Several of the companies on our Long list compete in the snack category including PepsiCo, Hershey, General Mills, and Utz Brands.
Hops overgrown (SAM)
The number of acres of hops harvested decreased 8.5% in 2023 compared with 2022 as seen in the chart below. The decline reflects a pullback in expectations for the craft beer industry. Inventories had been building and the decline this year reflects the planting signal given to farmers.
