Below is a chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.
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In today's Chart of the Day, we highlight a summary table of May’s NFP report. Down near the bottom is a line for the Household Survey which, in contrast to the headline beat, actually declined by 310K M/M. This is the largest M/M decline in more than a year. So, what gives? On the one hand, those reported being employed by employers remains quite healthy. That is the headline NFP number. On the other hand, in the Survey of Households (taken by talking to households) the employment situation looked a little dire in May. In part, the difference could be that someone who is considered employed by a company, though works minimal hours, may actually consider themselves to be unemployed. Either way, the divergence between these two reports is worth noting. Maybe it’s nothing, or maybe it’s another early indicator that employment is softening. |
