Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, is an intimate member of President Zelensky’s war cabinet. In a recent interview, he said the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive could begin in the next few days. The Ukrainians have gained ground on the northern and southern borders of Bakhmut, and an anti-Putin group comprised of Russians attacked Belgorod on Russian territory. Kyiv has also conducted long-range missile attacks behind enemy lines that are clearly intended to disrupt Russian command/control, supply lines, ammunition storage locations, etc.
Others among Ukrainian leadership said these actions indicate that the operation has already commenced. "The counteroffensive has been going on for several days now, there is intense fighting on the 1,500 kilometers of the frontier, but the actions have already begun," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told Italian public broadcaster Rai.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been long awaited and much hyped in Western media. In recent months the Ukrainian leadership has made efforts to address and even dampen expectations, as their previous offensives in late 2022 set a high standard. They quickly seized Kharkiv, punching through the Russian lines in eastern Ukraine. Their push south and the recapture of Kherson was another highly successful offensive that set the public’s view of the Ukrainian military’s morale and capabilities.
What followed, however, has been a monthslong battle for inches in Bakhmut. Tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Wagner Group conscripts, have died in this small town located near the iconic Soledar salt mines. Kyiv’s forces have held the Russians at bay, which may have positioned Ukraine well as they were able to inflict dramatic casualties on Russian forces, build up their military stores, and integrate new Western military weaponry including additional tanks, while also continuing the training of both soldiers and units for this counteroffensive.
But what are the prospects for Ukraine’s success? What do its soldiers need to achieve their goals and retain the continued support of the West? What are the implications of a failure and how would that be measured?
These are the questions being asked in Kyiv and in capitals across the world. The answers could decide whether Ukraine reclaims more of its territory or is compelled by its allies to meet the Russians at the negotiating table.
How did we get here?
For the past several weeks, Kyiv has conducted military, diplomatic, and informational “shaping operations.” The Ukrainian military has sought to position the Russian forces so they can successfully rout them while working with its allies and partners to acquire additional support. In military terms, “a shaping operation” is a standard tactic in a major joint campaign that involves attacking targets such as enemy weapon stores, command and control centers, and artillery systems to prepare the battlefield for an advancing force. Ukraine pursued similar operations prior to their successful counter-offensives in the country’s east and south.
Kyiv has also pursued a diplomatic campaign internationally to further buoy their impending military efforts. This has included an information campaign to outline the stakes and required support. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has traveled extensively to court international leaders and seek their continued support. He visited with the Arab League, traveled to major European capitals, and was a guest at the G7.
Zelenskyy secured Storm Shadow missiles during his visit to the United Kingdom, the first long-range missiles Ukraine has yet to acquire. While he was in Berlin, German Chancellor Scholtz announced a $3 billion military aid package to Ukraine. During the G7 meeting with President Joe Biden and other leaders, the Ukrainians were also given F-16 training for their pilots. This continues to show demonstrative Western support and will allow Kyiv to build its defense capabilities even after this conflict is over. It also further demonstrates that Putin is increasingly isolated internationally, as Zelenskyy enjoys the diplomatic audience that the Russian leader once relied upon.
At the same time, Ukrainian leaders have conducted an information campaign intended to both shape expectations and encourage disinformation concerning their specific plans. The Ukrainians privately expect this counteroffensive is unlikely to end the war, so there is growing concern that they have ratcheted hopes up too high. The Ukrainian public may also begin to expect victory this summer, rather than mere gains. This might mean that anything short of an all-out triumph could result in declining support, aid, and attention domestically as well as internationally.
Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post in an interview in early May that he feared “most people are … waiting for something huge,” which could lead to “emotional disappointment.”
“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” he said.
Could Ukraine succeed?
Since the war started, Zelensky has been adamant that Ukraine will continue the conflict until all Russian soldiers have departed Ukrainian soil. This includes not only the territory lost since February 2022 but also the ground seized in the Donbass by Russian-supported rebels and Crimea, which was taken by Moscow during the same period in 2014. This may be a “bridge too far.”
Most analysts and experts do believe that the Ukrainians must succeed strategically, not just operationally or tactically. Kyiv may seek to split the land bridge the Kremlin has established between mainland Russia and Crimea. This would isolate the peninsula as Ukrainian forces would seek to cut Crimea’s connection to Russia by destroying the Kerch Bridge, which Russian President Vladimir Putin had rebuilt after it was attacked in October. This would also allow Ukraine to strike targets more easily throughout Crimea and put at risk Sevastopol, the main port for the Russian Black Sea fleet.
But Ukrainian success might expose the fact that Western and Ukrainian objectives in this war overlap but do not necessarily coincide. Zelenskyy is focused on liberating all Ukrainian territory, and this is supported overwhelmingly by his people. Not pursuing this goal would not only be counter to the will of most Ukrainians but also undermine his popular support. His Western allies, however, might be willing to accept less than that and encourage him to seek negotiations with Moscow.
It is worth noting that some in Europe — particularly countries like Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia as well as the United Kingdom — might debate this point. These countries have argued for a longer view of European security, and many in their political ranks see this as a long-term test of the unity of both NATO and the European Union.
Still, it is critical to remember that the enemy gets a “vote” when it comes to both strategy and warfare — and NATO member states like Hungary and Turkey certainly do. So far, every assumption about how this war would proceed has been proven wrong. The greatest uncertainty surrounding this offensive may be how Russian forces react. According to some reports, Moscow has suffered over 200,000 casualties — 100,000 since December. It is also clear that Russian forces suffer from poor command and control, infighting between paramilitary groups, such as Wagner, and the military, as well as an inability to provide adequate supplies and replace lost equipment.
It is possible the Russian army could break, which might result in a dramatic change to the Kremlin’s policies and even its leadership. But it is also possible that Moscow could escalate if it becomes convinced Kyiv is succeeding. Putin recently directed the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and there is renewed concern that the Russians could escalate to nuclear use to thwart a Ukrainian advance.
On Friday, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine warned that the Russians may be planning to create some form of accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest nuclear plant in Europe that has been threatened by some of the fighting, to potentially leak radioactive substances and blame Ukraine. This, the Ukrainians allege, would be done to pause the fighting which would allow Russia to regroup its forces and to halt the counteroffensive.
While it is unclear how accurate Ukraine’s warning might be, Putin has not shied away from nuclear saber-rattling. Many within the arms control community are particularly on edge, and President Biden has warned in the past that the world is confronted with the most dramatic nuclear confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
It is imperative that the West and the Ukrainians begin now to think beyond this counteroffensive in multiple ways. No plan survives the first round fired, so Ukrainian success will depend on their ability to adjust their efforts as this campaign unfolds. They must rely on the training they have received from countries such as the U.S. and U.K. and rapidly adjust their operations as conditions on the battlefield dictate. They must also do their best to forget the Soviet training their senior military leaders have relied on in the past.
Ukraine’s long-term future, however, is dependent on its success over the next few weeks and months, and it is clearly possible that the counteroffensive may fail. Joseph Stalin once observed that “quantity has a quality all its own.” Moscow retains significant advantages in manpower and the apparent willingness to sustain incredible losses. Putin remains convinced his willpower is stronger than the West’s, and he is willing to continue to accept the dramatic level of Russian casualties we have witnessed over the past year. He is also aware that every leader at the G7 meeting currently enjoys less than 50% popular support at home. In the U.S., success or failure in the coming days will have an impact on how both the American people and Congress view the conflict at the end of the summer. Furthermore, members of the House and Senate will soon need to consider a new appropriation of funds to support the Ukrainians, and future funding could very well depend on not only how well Kyiv’s soldiers are doing but also the aftermath of a shattering political battle here at home over the debt ceiling.
The world is collectively holding its breath as this offensive begins, and the outcome could, in many ways, shape the European and global security landscape for years to come. The stakes could not be higher.
