[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Curve/Commodities/VIX

Great, now the debt ceiling is solved for and we can go ahead with another rate hike? Don’t forget about The Cycle…

1. CURVE – while the uniquely American US Equity FOMO trade did what it does when everyone’s forced to chase, Bond Yields did what they do when A) the Fed isn’t cutting rates any time soon (short-end, UST 2yr ramps to +4.17%) and B) the Long-end of the Curve (10s) signals lower-highs and probability rising of growth slowing faster (on higher short-term rates!); 10s2s re-inverting to -58bps
2. COMMODITIES – there’s no AI narrative in Oil, Copper, or Wheat, which are down another -0.5%, -0.9%, and -1.8%, respectively, as both US and European Consumer Demand slows into the thralls of Deep #Quad4 in Q2 of 2023. Reiterating our Short Energy, Industrials, and Materials positions (XOP, XLI, XLB) – go chase the NVDA chart at the top of its range into their EPS report instead
3. VIX – today is THE day to see what my #VASP Signal is showing for the 1^st time since the end of JAN, a big-higher-low at the LOW-end of my front-month VIX range with RVX (Russell Volatility) doing the same. In Tech/QQQ in particular, you should believe that the bulls believe – they’re all in now and MANY bears have capitulated right on time into tomorrow’s monthly OPEX

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 4067-4167; UST 10yr Yield = 3.33-3.60%

KM