“I come from part of the world where people did work rather than just talk about it.”
-Joyce Carol Oates
Every writer (including yours truly) knows who Joyce Carol Oates is. She’s an absolute grinder. Since publishing her 1st book in 1963, she’s published 58 books. Think about that. And keep grinding…
“If you feel like you just can’t write or are too tired, or this, that, and the other, just stop thinking about it and go to work.”
-Joyce Carol Oates
Ryan Holiday goes on to explain a “ceaseless work ethic” in Discipline Is Destiny: “In ancient Greece, there was not only a word to describe it – philoponia- there were even awards for it.” (pg 63)
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
So stop whining and complaining about whatever part of the market didn’t move your way yesterday and just work.
While some big players are able to move markets in their preferred direction for short-periods of market-time (or what Jim Gatheral called “clock-time” in The Volatility Surface), the rest of us mortals just have to deal with their flow and grind.
How do you deal with it (instead of whining about it)? A: #process.
If I didn’t continue to build and evolve my short-term risk management #process, my outcomes wouldn’t be what they’ve been this year. On my immediate-term TRADE duration (3 weeks or less):
- I’m 36 for my last 40 (winning trades) in Real-Time (Coaching) Alerts going back to the last week of April
- My average loss on the 4 of 40 that I had wrong was -1.96%
Some people hate me for talking about the score. Others #like it. I don’t do this for the lovers and the haters (please, Lord, may they never meet!). I do it for me. I do it to hold myself to the Highest Level of Accountability. I do it to #GetBetter.
Where’s my Long/Short Book at this morning:
A) AFTER covering LOTS of Shorts and buying-MORE of my Longs on Friday’s lows, I was +4.7% Net Long yesterday
B) AFTER the rally off those Friday intraday lows and into yesterday’s intraday highs I dropped to +1.4% Net Long
That’s it. I did what I did. There’s no excuse making or celebrating. Just 24 years of grinding = current positioning.
You see, if you’ve out-worked people and earned the opportunity to own both YOUR #process and YOUR Full Investing Cycle duration, you don’t have to panic, chase, or pray in order to save/make money today. You just need to execute.
You also need to understand the game that is being played within The Game.
There are some big ones that have manifested in the last 6 months like A) Zero-Days-To-Expiration #0DTE Options trading/hedging and B) Bear Basket Squeeze trading/hedging. I don’t whine about them. I capitalize on them.
Let’s use yesterday’s Bear Squeeze Baskets as a prime example (using the Goldman Prime Brokerage Baskets):
- Profitless Tech Basket squeezed for a monster +3.8% day (with SPX only +0.3%)
- Most Liquid Rolling Short Basket squeezed for a big +3.7% day
- High Retail Sentiment Basket squeezed for a big +3.5% day as well
In other words, if you didn’t listen to my #VASP (Volatility Adjusted Signaling Process) Signals at Friday’s intraday lows, and you were panic-covering and buying at yesterday’s intraday highs for the Russell 2000, you missed a > +2% move.
That’s the other thing about the game within The Game, they have timed flows!
A) Russell 2000’s (IWM) intraday low on Friday was 1732 at 2PM
B) Russell 2000’s (IWM) intraday high yesterday was 1768 at 1PM
No, not 2:03PM. Not 1:06PM either. Right on the dots at 2:00PM and 1:00PM.
This isn’t a conspiracy theory or anything Macro Unaware someone could say about it. This just is what it is. You either have the experience and discipline to “see” The Game for what it is right now, or you don’t.
“Seeing” doesn’t just happen because you had a high SAT score. It happens by doing. It happens by grinding it out, every day, and paying attention. If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have the aforementioned #timestamped results.
“Fundamentally”, what does it all have to do with either The Cycle or the Debt Ceiling? A: not much.
Can you deal with that intellectually and/or emotionally? If you want to score at the highest level, you better be able to deal. And, again, the best way to do that is to stop “feeling” and just work.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 3.66-3.89% (bearish)
UST 10yr Yield 3.31-3.55% (bearish)
UST 2yr Yield 3.76-4.15% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 74.05-74.91 (bearish)
SPX 4054-4170 (bearish)
NASDAQ 11,918-12,399 (bearish)
RUT 1711-1772 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 147-154 (bearish)
Gold Miners (GDX) 33.06-36.34 (bullish)
Utilities (XLU) 67.84-69.51 (bullish)
Staples (XLP) 76.12-77.48 (bullish)
Nikkei 28,718-29,906 (bullish)
DAX 15,702-16,007 (bullish)
VIX 16.07-20.66 (bullish)
USD 100.75-102.76 (neutral)
USD/YEN 133.65-137.54 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 67.43-75.60 (bearish)
Gold 2002-2058 (bullish)
Copper 3.65-3.89 (bearish)
Silver 23.80-26.81 (bullish)
Bitcoin 25,861-29,633 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
