UAA out with a mediocre quarter, and a guide down. Put up $0.18 vs the Street at $0.15. Revenue was weak in North America, with a material step up in promos and off price selling. Guided FY revs down to flattish vs the Street at 4%. To be clear I like the guide down – not just because I’m short the stock, but because the company is stepping up brand investments to make this brand relevant again. The problem is that it’s no where near enough. Took the year down to $0.49 vs the Street at $0.61. If the company really wants to achieve its goals and get some semblance of brand heat back here, it should have taken numbers down to an operating loss and plowed the excess capital into R&D, Endorsements, and Marketing. Yes, that would probably make this a $5 stock in a heartbeat, but one that we can actually get behind long side. But that didn’t happen. UAA continues to be a melting ice cube – and one that missed materially on Gross Margins due to bloated inventory (+44%) and heavier sales to off price channels – something it’s been fighting to get away from. The stock looks cheap-ish at 14x earnings, but historical multiples are completely irrelevant here. This is no longer a growth company, and Nike, ON, Hoka, Lululemon, Vuori, Rhone and other start ups are eating its lunch. Golf Clap to the new CEO for stepping investment, but it’s not enough – a rounding error relative to the capital being deployed by better positioned competition. We’ll stay short this name, based on what we know today, until it’s a $4-$5 stock.
Takeaway: CEO stepping up investment, but not enough to bring back brand heat. UAA is in purgatory until we see a meaningful step-up in spending.
