During a state visit by Republic of Korea (ROK) President Yoon Suk Yeol to Washington, President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would deploy nuclear-armed submarines to South Korea for the first time in decades. This was contained in the so-called “Washington Declaration.” This new agreement is aimed to signal Washington’s renewed commitment to South Korea and the latest effort to deter the rising threat posed by North Korea’s expanding missile and nuclear weapon capabilities. This is a significant shift in American security policy with respect to Northeast Asia.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea, has now tested missiles that could potentially reach the American continent. Whether it has perfected a nuclear warhead for strategic delivery remains uncertain, however. Pyongyang is estimated to have an arsenal of 60 nuclear weapons. The aim of the new accord, according to Biden administration officials, is to make the U.S.’s deterrence strategy “more visible.” It will surely send a message to Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow, as it returns nuclear warheads to a region where tensions are at a boiling point.
The last time the U.S. docked ballistic missile submarines in South Korea was in the 1980s. The U.S. also stored tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea for many years, but they were withdrawn in 1991. For the White House to reverse course on these decisions shows how much the calculus with North Korea has changed since the country first announced its nuclear ambitions. It indicates that three decades of efforts to discourage Pyongyang’s nuclear desires through diplomacy, sanctions and aid packages have failed.
North Korea’s efforts, which it shows no indication of abandoning, pose a serious threat to peace and stability in Northeast Asia as well as American security commitments to South Korea and Japan. Furthermore, now that Pyongyang has thermonuclear weapons and is testing intercontinental ballistic missiles, Washington must confront the real possibility that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could threaten strikes not only against South Korea, Japan, and American forces in the region but also the American homeland.
President Joe Biden’s decision is two-fold. First, the Biden Administration seeks to deter North Korea from pursuing a conventional or nuclear attack on its southern neighbor. Second, Washington wishes to reassure South Korea that the United States stands behind its commitment to defend the ROK including, if necessary, the use of nuclear weapons. This is also intended to dampen South Korea’s desire to develop its own nuclear arsenal, which has gained increasing support among its citizens. In a poll released on March 1 by Data Research, more than 70% of South Koreans supported developing nuclear weapons. Only 27% were opposed to the idea, and South Korean President Yoon has stated the country is not pursuing the development of nuclear weapons — though he said in January that the country might develop its own if Washington did not act.
The “Washington Declaration” also creates a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) which for the first time will include both American and South Korean military officers, diplomats, and political leaders. This body is similar to NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG). It is designed to formulate nuclear policy for the alliance and discuss the deployment/stationing of nuclear weapons on the peninsula.
The American-Korean strategy is fairly similar to what the U.S. pursued during the Cold War with its European partners. NATO adopted a strategy called “Flexible Response” that sought to convince the Soviets that any major attack would likely lead to escalation and nuclear war.
Biden’s commitment will relieve some of the pressure for South Korea to pursue the development of its own nuclear arsenal which could cause economic and political turmoil. South Korea has become an economic powerhouse, but the development of nuclear weapons would likely result in significant economic sanctions. The ROK would have to withdraw from Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which South Korea signed in 1975. Prior to that Seoul had pursued its own nuclear program. Ironically the only country that has withdrawn from the NPT is North Korea which resulted in UN-sponsored economic sanctions. Many experts also believe that South Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT might be a devastating blow to Washington’s efforts to discourage proliferation globally.
The ”Washington Declaration” will also likely resolve some recent strains in the American-ROK security relationship. The AUKUS deal that will provide Australia assistance in the development of nuclear submarines in a joint deal with the U.S. and U.K. had some in South Korea upset that they were not offered the same opportunity.
The deployment of American nuclear submarines to the ROK is only the latest step that shows how precarious the region’s security situation has become. The Harvard Korea Project estimates that Kim Jon Un intends to develop around 200 to 300 weapons, the Pentagon believes China will expand its arsenal to 1,500 weapons by 2035 and Russia has threatened the use of tactical weapons in Ukraine. Moscow has also suspended participation in the New START agreement which is the last arms control treaty between Russia and the U.S. that limits the size of their strategic nuclear arsenals. President Yoon was inaugurated in May 2022 and is a member of the conservative People Power Party. He was elected on a platform that called for a hawkish approach toward North Korea and a willingness to respond to Pyongyang’s provocations in a more provocative manner.
The efforts of past American Administrations to formulate an effective North Korean policy have failed. The Obama Administration pursued “strategic patience” in the hope that conditions on the peninsula might evolve and offer the opportunity for meaningful negotiations. Former President Donald Trump’s efforts ranged from promising “fire and fury like the world has never seen” in response to North Korean missile launches to predicting the regime's total nuclear disarmament and Western hotels on the country’s beaches. But the DPRK’s arsenal has just kept growing and earlier this month North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son-hui, promised that their status “as a world-class nuclear power is final and irreversible.” That means the Biden Administration’s approach is based on the belief that the possibility of negotiating with North Korea about its nuclear arsenal is remote, but the need to deter the rising threat posed by North Korea is at its zenith.
This is also affected by the deterioration of U.S. relations with China, which are now at their lowest point in decades. American policymakers have acknowledged for many years that Beijing was the only country that had significant leverage over North Korea. After all, Beijing remains the primary supplier of economic assistance. It has provided Pyongyang with unconditional food aid during times of famine and is the DPRK’s main trading partner. During the pandemic, much of that trade and relationship deteriorated because of shutdowns. Things have returned to near normal only in the past few months, which has included the reopening of the train route between the two countries and truck shipments moving across the border daily. The North Koreans recently hosted a Chinese delegation.
While the two nations continue to have close ties, Kim Jong Un appears to have gained new confidence to act as he deems appropriate. This could be a result of the pandemic or because China has welcomed his behavior as relations with Washington have worsened. Beijing has sought to create a coalition of aggrieved nations, as it maintains close relationships with both Iran and Russia. This effort appears to be intended to place greater stress on the U.S. and its allies, though they are undoubtedly unnerved by some of North Korea’s behavior and the possibility of a nuclear crisis or conflict on the peninsula.
But the “Washington Declaration” will also have an impact on American relations with Japan and between Tokyo and Seoul. Earlier this month, Tokyo evacuated an island when it detected a North Korean ICBM missile test that might present a threat. These tests have become so regular that it is more a point of irritation for South Koreans and the Japanese, but it is also an existential threat to the two nations. Still, one Japanese diplomat in New York remarked that, as he followed last year’s Major League Baseball season, he tallied the number of missile tests to see whether the North Koreans would launch more missiles than Aaron Judge would hit home runs. (North Korea beat out the Yankees captain.)
The increasing threat posed by North Korea is one reason Japan and South Korea have sought to develop a closer relationship, as both had considered the other a longtime historic enemy. South Korea sees itself as needing to strengthen its ties with the West and the close alliances they maintain. Japan is also increasing its defense spending significantly to make it a potential military juggernaut in the Indo-Pacific region.
If the two countries can smooth over their volatile history, then South Korea, Japan, and the United States will have established an improved security architecture that will enhance deterrence with respect to North Korea and respond to the growing threat posed by the People’s Republic of China. As one South Korean diplomat put it to explain their willingness to get over their historic disdain: “Japan is a 100-year-old enemy, but China is a 1,000-year-old enemy.”
The “Washington Declaration” is an important development for many reasons. This move certainly shows the U.S. flexing some of its muscle as China and North Korea have become increasingly confrontational. What comes next is unclear, but it likely depends on how America’s foes respond.
