As the joke around health policy goes, "when you have seen one Medicaid program, you have seen one Medicaid program." The complexity and the idiosyncrasies of each state plan belie all the efforts of federal agencies to great a uniform national system. That is no excuse, however, for the slow speed at which enrollment, generally and in individual eligibility groups, proceeds. Currently, the last report on enrollment, generally was November 2022. The last report on major eligibility categories is dated 2020.
Happily Congress has imposed reporting requirements to provide viability into state enrollment data as well as the cadence they expect for redeterminations, renewals and terminations. Georgetown University's Center for Children and Families is tracking a lot of the data submissions here. Until that data fills in over the next several weeks, the Treasury's monthly report is proving reasonably accurate when smoothed for 3-months to eliminate all the usual lags and mistakes in health care.
Using that method, it appears Medicaid enrollment is holding steady at about 84 million with another 6-7 million enrolled in CHIP. The Kaiser Family Foundation has estimated a total of 95 million could be affected by redeterminations and for now that appears too high.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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