Event Details:
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Perrigo (PRGO) Long Thesis:
In 2022, Perrigo earned 30% less than the original EPS estimate at the beginning of the year. Even events that were in Perrigo’s favor became causes of negative EPS revisions.
We will review what happened during the year, what went wrong, and what went right. 2022 was still largely driven by macro factors with more elements out of the control of management than what they can be held accountable for. We will hold ourselves accountable and assess what is thesis creep and what parts of the investment thesis remain the same. More importantly, we will look out and project what could go better or worse for Perrigo by examining the headwinds and tailwinds.
With depleted inventory levels at retail for Cough & Cold, a better outlook for Oral Care from lower freight rates, additional Infant Formula production capacity (better for revenue growth and margins), continued synergies from HRA, and margin recapture from pricing initiatives Perrigo's 2023 is set up to put the challenges of 2022 behind. Management’s three-year outlook is well above the long-term growth formula, but it reflects lapping non-repeating events and management’s confidence in both recovery and growth.
