[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | QE/Rates/QQQ

The Mother of All Bubbles evidently requires big bailout moneys, but it’s the gravity that gets you in this part of The Cycle…

1. QE – “banks and balance sheets are in great shape” (heard 1000s of times when we went bearish on The Cycle > 14 months ago); in other news, looks like they just wiped out half of QT with Bank Borrowing at the Discount Window GREATER on a weekly basis ($165B this week) vs. any week in 2008 ($111B was the record week, and that didn’t change The Cycle either)
2. RATES – I think Powell is going to raise rates next week, so get through $2.9 TRILLION (notional) in Options Expiring today and noodle over that on St. Patrick’s Day #Drink! Why? Because A) he hasn’t said he won’t and B) the top-end of my Risk Range on UST 2yr Yield just went UP to 5.18%. What’s whipping the 2yr around 100bps a week amongst your bullish friends?
3. QQQ – we’ve had some layup Selling Opportunities in the past > 14 months, and here’s another one. The NASDAQ remains in #Quad4 Crash mode (-27% from its Mother of All Bubble Peaks) and has immediate-term downside in my Risk Range of -5.7% (679 points) with consensus chasing the “It’s March of 2020!” trade (newsflash: it’s not – that’s when we were coming #out of a recession)

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.38-4.11%

KM