[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Rates/Commodities/VIX

We have to be really right on a Deep #Quad4 Recession to justify the rate cuts the market is trying to “price in”…

1. RATES – this is what interest rates do A) when countries are in a recession and B) even the central bankers figure that out… so let’s see how many Americans beg Yellen for European Bank Bailouts this morning and get on with our risk managed day with UST and German 10yr Yields collapsing -17bps each! And the Euro down a full -1% vs. our Core Long USD Asset Allocation
2. COMMODITIES – this is what Commodities do (they crash)… A) when in a #Quad4 Recession in demand and B) when USD ramps like this – our signal to get #out of Copper nailed it with a -1.8% decline in that critical leading indicator this morning. EV’s and Elon are “cool” but being long Lithium isn’t (crashing -27% in a month), Lumber (-14% in a month) is crashing alongside US Housing demand, Oil < $70, etc.
3. VIX – immediate-term upside towards the F-Bucket (29 VIX) for front-month is pretty much all you need to know after the 1^st up day for SPY in 4. SPY could be down -2.8% today (low-end of my Risk Range) and no one should be surprised

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3811-3976; UST 10yr Yield = 3.48-4.13%

KM