[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | USD/Rates/Utes

What a difference a month makes… review the decisions you made 1-month ago and always try to #GetBetter…  

1. USD – this month was consistent with the #Quad4 Growth Slowing (into a recession) view we’ve held, as longer-term Full Cycle Investors should have, for going on 14 months now. Over that time span the US Dollar Index has returned +8.4% and it’s up another +0.4% this morning vs. Burning Yens, which could/should go a lot lower with the BOJ’s Rate & Policy Differentials vs. Fed Rate Hikes
2. RATES – both 2s and 10s fell post another US #Growth Slowing Durable Goods & Capex report for JAN, but the net of it is that the Short-End of The Curve remains pinned with HIGHER-HIGHS in play as the Long-End signals LOWER-HIGHS, which equates to a nasty Yield Curve Inversion; meanwhile Germany’s 10yr Bund Yield is up another +5bps to new 12 year highs this morning
3. UTES – and you thought being Long Gold was bad. Imagine being long Coal (crashing -6% yesterday to -30% in a month) or having NOT sold Utes (XLU) when my #VASP Signal broke TREND support; XLU led losers (Sector Styles) yesterday -0.7% to -6.2% in the last 2 months; especially with Peak Cycle Inflation (pricing) comps, we’re staying clear of these LOWER-LOWS in XLU

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.73-4.03%

KM