Despite Governor Palin’s “better than expected” performance in the Vice Presidential debates last week, McCain has received no bounce. The current Real Clear Politics national poll average shows Obama up +5.9 and Intrade Market show a 65.5% chance of an Obama victory. In addition, on an electoral college basis Real Clear Politics has Obama up by an astounding 168 electoral college votes.
We have been writing since August that an Obama victory is likely and that his victory will be negative for the equity markets in the intermediate term. As a result, we have been positioned very conservatively (96% Cash, 3% Gold) and will be positioned conservatively from here through November 4th subject to the facts changing.