THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


Sovereign debt concerns in Europe are mounting, once again, as Greek two- and ten-year government bonds slumped, driving yields to the highest level since before the inception of the Euro.  Oil has declined as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister says that markets are “oversupplied”. 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1105 (+878)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1040.22 (+16%)
  • VIX:  15.32 -5.84% YTD PERFORMANCE: -13.69%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.11 from 1.50 (40.67%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 21.32 -0.075 (-0.351%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-YEAR: 3.43 from 3.51
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.72 from 2.74

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 08:30 a.m.: Housing Starts: est. 520k, prior 479k
  • 08:30 a.m.: Building Permits: est. 540k, prior 517k
  • 08:30 a.m.: Housing Starts MoM % Chg: est. 8.6%, prior -22.5%
  • 08:30 a.m.: Building Permits MoM% Chg: est. 1.1%, prior -8.2%
  • 10:00 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher, Lockhart to discuss globalization in Atlanta
  • 11:00 a.m.: Export Inspections (corn, wheat, soybeans)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $30b in 3-mo., $28b in 6-mo. bills.
  • 12:30 p.m.: Fed’s Bullard to speak on banking rules in Kentucky
  • 04:00 p.m.: Crop progress report

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. 2yr yield falls to 3-week low before housing data at 10 a.m, median est. 17 by 39 analysts:
  • Pulitzer Prize winners announced, 3 p.m.
  • ECB’s Bonello urges caution against rate hikes at the expense of economic growth
  • Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom agree on JV to save EU1.3b
  • Ferrari IPO should be worth $7.3b, Marchionne says

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATIONS:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Snickers-to-Noodles Surge Drives Cooking Oil Supplies to Three-Decade Low
  • China Said to Limit Industrial Corn Use to Meet Demand For Livestock Feed
  • Oil Declines in New York After Saudi Arabia Says Market Is `Oversupplied'
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bearish Gas Bets After ‘Dead Cat Bounce’: Energy Market
  • Corn Falls for Second Day as China Raises Reserve Ratios to Cool Inflation
  • Coffee Climbs as Rains May Delay Colombian Harvest; Cocoa Prices Advance
  • Gold Falls as Some Investors Sell Following Advance to Record-High Price
  • Copper for Three-Month Delivery Declines 0.5% to $9,360 a Ton in London
  • Minmetals Will Raise Up to $864 Million in Share Sale to Fund Zinc Project
  • China Has ‘Pent-Up Demand’ for Sugar, May Buy 1.8 Million Tons, ANZ Says
  • Palm Oil Gains After Drop to Lowest Price in Four Months Lures Some Buyers
  • Corn, Soybeans May Rise as Wet, Cool Weather Stalls Planting, Survey Shows
  • Singamas May Raise Container Prices 11% on Higher Steel Cost, Japan Quake
  • Gold-Shortage Threat Drives Texas Schools Hoarding 664,000 Ounces at HSBC

 

CURRENCIES:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Bonello Urges ECB Caution in Raising Rates as Most-Indebted Nations Trail
  • European Stocks, U.S. Futures Slide as Banks, Insurance Companies Retreat
  • Greek, Portuguese Government Yields Surge to Records on Default Concerns
  • Ferrari Should Be Valued at $7.3 Billion in IPO, Marchionne Tells Bankers
  • Czech Central Bank Governor Says Mixed ‘Signals’ Are Clouding Rate Outlook
  • Allied Irish Swaps Decline on Concern Payout at Risk in Any Restructuring
  • France Telecom to Make Joint Purchases With Deutsche Telekom to Save Money
  • London Homes' Asking Prices Rise to Record Amid Shortage, Rightmove Says
  • Sberbank Joins Credit Suisse to Set Up $1 Billion Investment Russia Fund
  • Czech Central Banker Says Preventing Crises by Regulation Is ‘Nonsense’
  • BOE Should Maintain Key Rate at Record Low as Recovery Struggles, E&Y Says
  • Ruble Eurobond Yield Lowest to Domestic Spurs Second Sale: Russia Credit

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS:

  • China Raises Reserve Ratio to Curb Inflation as Zhou Pledges More to Come
  • Most Asian Stocks Retreat on China Policy Tightening Concern; AIA Surges
  • BOJ Said to Forecast Inflation Accelerating to 0.5% for Year to March 2012
  • G-20 Targets ‘Too Big to Ignore’ Economies as Growth Will Outweigh Shocks
  • Hysan Says Causeway Bay Rents to Narrow Price Gap With Hong Kong’s Central
  • ‘Ugly’ Inflation Drives Biggest Bond Selloff Since January: India Credit
  • China's Huawei Closes In on Ericsson After Revenue Triples Over Five Years
  • Kissinger’s ‘Basket Case’ Bangladesh Targets Record Growth in Three Years
  • Pimco ‘Open to Adding’ Investments Across Asia as Gross Shuns Treasuries
  • Temasek's Mapletree Commercial Raises $718 Million in Singapore Share Sale
  • Hong Kong's Home Prices to Drop When Fed Policy Shifts: Chart of the Day
  • Hong Kong Canary Singing Commodities Boom Peaking in Aussie Mine: Real M&A

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA


MIDDLE EAST:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more