RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | Nothing but Good News, CHEF, BOWL USFD - 2023 02 15 16 30 23

Nothing but the good news

The outlook is positive between Foodservice and eating place sales CHEF and BOWL.
We still would fade the good news for Casual Dining, CHEF, USFD 

The preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau put Eating and drinking places' total sales of $95.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, up 7.5% MoM from sales of $89 billion in November and December. In unadjusted terms, eating and drinking place sales declined 4.4% MoM and 24% YoY a month, negatively impacting business conditions by the omicron variant. December, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau, was down 0.9% from November’s downward-revised volume of $89.2 billion. Both BOWL and CHEF expect consumers to remain resilient in the coming months, even in the face of an economy that is likely to slow. Healthy household balance sheets, a buoyant labor market, and moderating inflation will give consumers the wherewithal to continue burning off the pent-up demand they accumulated during the pandemic.

A nice quarter from CHEFCHEF 4Q22 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.01; Revenue of $791.3M (+41.7% Y/Y) beats by $55.04M; Adjusted EBITDA was $50.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $30.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2021. The gross profit margin increased by approximately 116 basis points to 23.7% from 22.5%. The full Year 2023 Guidance: Based on current trends in the business, the Company is providing full-year financial guidance as follows: Estimated net sales for the full year of 2023 will be in the range of $2.85 billion to $2.95 billion vs. $2.90B consensus; Gross profit to be between $684.0 million and $708.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $180.0 million and $190.0 million.

  • CHEF - management team said the extra week in December caused a 6% increase in revenue. Revenue came in at $791.3M. That means x that extra week, they had 743.8M in revenue. Street estimates were from $707.6-759.9M, with the average coming out at 736.3M. So much slighter of a beat on a wide margin of revenue estimates.
  • CHEF - "we service the top 10% of the earners in the world or the corporates that are traveling and entertaining. So, we're not seeing anything as of this point, any change in behavior." 
  • CHEF - The first part of December, the holiday season, and the event season was just as strong as we had indicated on our third quarter call where we had more visibility into the bookings, etcetera. So that played out. I think what was different was generally, in a normal year, the 52nd week of the year, which is usually the week of Christmas, is generally weak. People are generally celebrating at home. And so, we model that in. 53rd week, we had two weeks of that at the end of the year. And so, we did lose a little bit of operating leverage, but it was still a very strong fourth quarter for a good December and us, except for that final 53rd week, which generally falls in the first quarter and is a fairly low volume week as well.
  • CHEF - Deflation moving to the upper end of guidance

Bowlero reports 2Q23 "normalized" net income $32.2M vs FactSet $26.9M; Revenue $273.4M vs FactSet $256.9M; Adjusted EBITDA $97.0M vs FactSet $89.1M. 

  • BOWL - "Well, we haven't seen any material change in customer behavior thus far. So the customer rate remains strong. Demand remains strong. I can't predict what'll happen over the near term or the remainder of the fiscal year, but we've seen nothing thus far that shows any weakening of consumer demand."
In the USFD results, the industry strength can be seen in independent vs. chains

USFD: Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.55 beats by $0.02; Revenue of $8.5B (+11.3% Y/Y) misses by $20M; Adjusted EBITDA increased 33.6% to $350 million. FY23 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $1.45-$1.51 billion and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.45-$2.65 vs. consensus $2.65

  • USFD - "Total case volume increased 2.6% during the quarter with gains seen across segments. Independent restaurant case volume was up 5.8%, while hospitality was 19.2% higher. Healthcare volume rose 5.6%, while chain volume was down."

RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | Nothing but Good News, CHEF, BOWL USFD - foodservice

RESTAURANT INSIGHTS | Nothing but Good News, CHEF, BOWL USFD - 2023 02 15 16 29 47