Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary "Top 3 Things" note from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Institutional investors receive this between 6:30-7am. To get on Keith's institutional distribution list email .

For the umpteenth time, those betting on a Dovish Fed Pivot and “2% sequential CPI” simply have the wrong headline inflation assumptions…

  1. RATES – the short-end of The Curve (2s) absolutely nailed it (again, that’s where Fed Policy gets priced in) and have immediate-term upside to 4.72% in my Risk Range this morning – this, of course, inverts The Yield Curve to A) New Cycle Lows (-87bps on 10s2s) and B) pretty much towards where I’ve expected it to go (-90-100bps) as the Long-end of The Curve signals lower-Cycle-highs albeit with the UST 10yr Yield back to Bullish @Hedgeye TREND (that level is now 3.63%)
  2. USD “charts” guys sold last month’s USD lows and now, the US Dollar is signaling A) big higher-lows (101.52 on USD Index) within B) the Long-term Bullish TAIL setup. USD is up another +0.9% vs. GBP this morning and threatening to go Bullish TREND again vs. Yen
  3. GOLD obviously doesn’t #like Dollar Up, Rates Up this morning – but this should be the beginning of the Long-end of The Curve going up at a lesser rate, then eventually breaking down (that’s the textbook US Recession #Quad4 setup that would get you paid long Gold again = Dollar Up, Long-term Rates Down. Gold’s @Hedgeye TREND support level = $1803 and Gold Volatility is still at 15 so I’ll be buying Gold on red today

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.40-3.85%