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WYNN should report an all-around monster quarter.  Vegas may be the biggest surprise.

What shouldn’t surprise investors is that we are 11% above the Street for Q1 Wynn Macau EBITDA.  What may surprise is that we are high on the Street for Las Vegas EBITDA.  A combination of strong hold and big volumes may have done the trick in Vegas.

We estimate that WYNN will report 1Q2011 net revenue of $1,230MM and EBITDA of $357MM; 8% and 17% ahead of Street estimates. 

WYNN Macau

We project that Wynn & Encore Macau will report net revenue of $874MM and EBITDA of $292MM in 1Q2011, 4% and 11% ahead of Street, respectively

  • We estimate gross and net gaming revenues of $1,056MM and $819MM, respectively
    • VIP net win of $553MM
    • Assuming direct play of 11%, Rolling Chip of $29.5BN (up 46% YoY and 7% sequentially) and hold of 2.7%
    • Rebate rate of 80bps
  • Mass table win of $191MM
    • Table volume of $798MM and hold of 24%
  • Slot win of $74MM
    • Handle of $1.43BN and win% of 5.2%
  • Non-gaming revenue, net of promotional expenses of $55MM
  • Variable expenses of $462MM ($411MM of gaming taxes and $45MM of incremental junket commissions above the rebate)
  • $26MM of recorded expenses for non-gaming revenues
  • Fixed expenses of $94MM

WYNN Las Vegas

We estimate that Wynn Las Vegas will report $356MM of net revenues and $87MM of EBITDA, 6% and 18% above the Street, respectively.

  • We estimate net casino revenues of $172MM
    • Table win of $160MM; table drop up 20% YoY to $668MM and hold of 24%
    • Slot win of $45MM; volume up 10% YoY to $742MM and 6% hold
    • Discounts and other of 16% or $33MM
  • $239MM of non casino revenue and $55MM of promotional expenses
  • $53MM of SG&A and $5MM of doubtful accounts

Other stuff:

  • Corporate expense: $22MM
  • D&A: $101MM
  • Stock comp: $8MM
  • Net Interest expense: $58MM