Politics. American football is one of the few lenses left through which sane people can see the world. There was that thing about kneeling and a certain amount of defiance among college teams in the fall of 2020, but mostly no one gets mad if you like Philadelphia more than Buffalo.
I mean, not really.
Aside from the comforting fact that professional football is one of the few jobs left in this country that only men can perform – until they engineer the AI powered cyborg named Buffy – it is also littered with pleasant anachronisms.
About half of NFL teams are based in America’s former manufacturing centers in the Northeast, Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. Leaving aside the whole verklempt cultural appropriation silliness in recent years (they will ALWAYS be the Washington Redskins), team names invoke the courage and commitment of another era.
No one was worried by cultural appropriation of fearless Nordic tribes, so the Minnesota Vikings remain. The Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers call to mind other jobs that used to done almost exclusively by men. The Eagles, of course, associate themselves with a national symbol and Philadelphia’s role in history.
But the Tennessee Titans? As far as I know, we have little experience with mythology. We also have no oil, The Beverly Hillbillies notwithstanding, so keeping the Oilers name was out of the question. The Jacksonville Jaguars? Those big cats are in Florida? That is some global warming.
Sadly, those bland and completely uninspiring team names assigned to relocated/expansion franchises are designed not to offend and in so doing inspire no one with the exception of Tampa Bay.
Everyone loves and respects a pirate.
Policy. Even as the country grew 0.60% between 2020 and 2022, New York and California lost about 1M people. Texas and Florida gained 1.5M. The excuse at hand is these states’ high tax rates relative to the near zero in the south. New York also has the excuse of bad weather.
It is more than taxes, however. They have been high for years and the population gain/loss in California, for example, is usually a few basis points. Quality of life is also an issue but that can be fixed by moving from San Francisco to Marin County.
No, the problem is probably more deep-seated and difficult to fix if you are Gov. Gavin Newsom or Kathy Hochul. The social contract between the governed and the governing kinda requires political leaders use their tax dollars wisely. If they do not, there comes a time when the costs outweigh the benefits for their people.
This dynamic is particularly relevant as we enter negotiations over the debt ceiling. Democrats, many of whom we might call “macro unaware” are planning to demand more revenue via taxes, forgetting that a low federal rate is what makes a high state/local rate possible. Many Republicans are also “macro unaware” but they hate taxes, so it matters less.
There being no agreement on revenue increases, the pitched fight will be over expenses and health care is a big one.
Power. It can be credibly said that the 2020 census was probably not the best one yet. Federal personnel policies during pandemic disrupted the routine processes. Nonetheless, the bedrock of the American Democratic party – California and New York – lost House seats.
As domestic migration picked up in 2021 and continued into 2022 and as budget realities set in on the tech and financial services-dependent states, there are no signs the balance of power will end its shift south.
Before the 2030 census, that power shift will be acknowledged through the quality of candidates each party fields. Growing and dynamic parts of the country will see themselves in highly qualified candidates. Those areas in decline will get George Santos.
Start thinking of better NFL team names.
Have a great weekend.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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