Flu monitor (PRGO)
The CDC estimates that there have been at least 24 million illnesses from the flu this season through the week ended January 7, up two million from the previous week. The flu had surged since Thanksgiving but is declining in most areas despite the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. The cumulative hospitalization rate was more than 1.8 times higher than the highest cumulative in-season hospitalization rate observed for this week since 2010-11. 13.1% of deaths that occurred during the week were attributed to pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19, above the 6.8% threshold for an epidemic.
Perrigo’s Q4 is mostly set for the cough & cold season as orders are already in and production is maximized, especially for liquid medicines. Most retailers are short of cough & cold medicine. A larger or longer cough & cold season would be seen in Q1 results as retailers reorder more inventory.
Texas on-premise alcohol beverage tax receipts (STZ)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts on a monthly basis. In December, alcoholic beverage receipts increased by 10.1% YOY. That represents an acceleration from +7.5% in November. Receipts were 15.7% higher than in pre-pandemic December 2019. In Texas, bars have been mostly open with limited restrictions since October 2020. Texas is the second largest state for Constellation Brands.
Last week we hosted our Constellation Brands Black Book call.
For the replay and materials: CLICK HERE. |
Grubhub’s view (STKL, WEST)
According to Grubhub’s year-end report the top three non-alcoholic beverages predicted to outperform in 2023 are oat, nut, or seed milks, followed by cold brew innovations, and non-alcoholic seltzers/sparkling water. Oat milk was ranked above almond, coconut, soy, and cashew. Customers preferred oat milk over almond milk at a ratio of four to one. Iced coffee jumped from third place in 2021 to the top coffee order in 2022. According to the report “’ iced coffee over everything’ was the motto, regardless of the temperature outside.” Westrock Coffee went public to raise capital for its bet on the growth of iced and cold brew coffee. The company recently accelerated phase 2 of its plant construction to build the largest cold brew facility in Conway, Arkansas. The plant will begin commercial production in early 2024. SunOpta is the largest producer of plant-based milks and opened a new production facility in Texas at the end of 2022.
