Remember what Rates did after CPI actually slowed more than expected last month? It’s become a Macro Tourist Mania!
- CPI – #BestPart about Tourists: they all have an opinion but no process or models for CPI. Our proprietary CPI Nowcast (which nailed CPI on the way up for 2 years) is currently implying 6.71% for DEC and +7.19% for #Quad4 in Q4. If the print is A) at or higher than our nowcast, that’ll be fun and B) if it is lower than consensus its still 6-7% and there is no Fed Soup (pivot) Fo You at that level of headline inflation
- GOLD – instead of having another panic attack chasing GS’s Most Short Basket (it led the Gamma Squeeze up another +4.1% yesterday), why aren’t all the chart chasers long Precious Metals yet with Gold breaking out to new Cycle Highs +0.7% this morning (Silver and Platinum Longs much better than being long QQQ Futures at +1.5% and +1.3%, respectively). These are explicit #Quad4 Recession Positions and Signals (GLD, SLV, PPLT)
- QQQ – I don’t see many of the Bulls from 2000-2002 (I was born a Thunder Bay Bear back then) but they’d recall 11 NASDAQ “breakouts” of +10% or more that all failed and crashed. I’m only 12 months into being on the right side of this one and no one should be surprised if NASDAQ is down -5.5% (from here) by some time on Friday. That would be a new Cycle Low. There’s this thing after CPI called Earnings Season, don’t forget!
Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.45-3.99%
KM
