[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | JGB/USD/Commodities

Imagine you were in the “inflation slows, buy Tech” camp? Clearly no clue about a #Quad4 Profit Recession…

1. JGB – 10yr Japanese Gov Yield ramped +8bps overnight (that’s a lot) to 0.49% as A) the Cost of Capital, Globally, continues to Regime Shift higher and B) Liquidity continues to dry up, globally – LIVE shot of the Fed Pivot (higher) = UST 2yr Yield ramps to 4.47% and the Yield Curve just got buried back down to -75bps n 10s/2s
2. USD – Top Macro Chart Monkey “trades for 2023” were A) Short USD and B) Buy Yield Curve Steepeners. #AWFUL. Especially if today’s US Wages remain ramped, USD should signal immediate-term TRADE #overbought today, so book-SOME gains so that you can be there buying-MORE USD next time the chartists get excited!
3. COMMODITIES – if Tom Lee is long the “inflation slowing” narrative, why isn’t he Short Oil, Energy, and Commodities, as an Asset Class vs. Long Gold and Silver (up +0.8% off yesterday’s buy-MORE RTA Signal)? Asking for some objective, process-driven, friends… as the #Quad4 Crash in the CRB Commodities Index moves to lower-lows (-21% from June’s Inflation Cycle Peak)

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.60-3.95%

KM