I’ve heard from them say with pride, “I haven’t read a book in years”…
-Chris Bosh
While true stories that everyone should have believed are getting harder to find as Old Wall Street winds down another year, that’s an incredible one from Letters To A Young Athlete, by Chris Bosh. He was talking about some of his “coaches.”
Sources matter. Just because some people need/want to believe something doesn’t mean it’s true. Rid yourself of your biases and focus on the ROC (rate of change) facts. There’s always something you need to either unlearn or learn.
In Chapter 4 of his book titled “Cultivating The Mind”, Bosh gives you (or your kids) the confidence you need to think for yourself: “One of the reasons I know you’re going to be OK is because you are reading this” (pg 54). Reading real research matters.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
If you’re still reading this, you’ve been reading about The Mother Of All Bubbles for at least 12 months now. While plenty of new Longs continue to manifest in #Quad4, plenty of those bubbles (our Core Shorts) continue to epically implode.
Exhibit A (from yesterday): Tesla (TSLA).
- Peaked when we were bullish (i.e. during #Quad2’s economic acceleration in NOV 2021) at $409/share
- This component of The Mother of All Bubbles had $1.3 TRILLION in #BubbleCap back then
- Its #Quad4 2022 Crash is currently running at -66% from Cycle Peak = $435 BILLION in #BubbleCap
I’ve had a plenty of trophy shorts in my career. Hedgeye’s Independent Research team has too. I’ve always said that Elon is at the heart of concentric bubbles that make up The Mother of All Bubbles. That’s fully loaded with his storytelling.
Q (for Perma Bulls): What, over the course of this year, has he said that you either wanted or needed to believe?
What’s interesting about that camp is that some became Twitter and YouTube stars for doing pretend tweet “analysis” on the company. I’ve been short one of the higher profile ones (in his own mind): Gerbs (GK) all year too.
Elon himself chirped Gerbs pretty good last night. Gerbs isn’t an analyst. He’s a glorified broker who pumps story stocks.
What’s the difference between the pump and dumps you saw in Crypto and TSLA? At least one of them is in the business of selling cars and stock. #BankmanFraud surrendered to the FBI today. He was selling a ponzi scheme.
A major problem, of course, is that The Mother of All Bubbles included $3 TRILLION in #CryptoCrapCap + $1.3 TRILLION in everything Elon. MANY who had never “invested” (or seen a bear market) before owned both.
Big Hedgeye knucks goes out to my Partner & Sector Head, Jay Van Sciver, for building a TSLA model that actually worked. If you’d like to speak to Jay about why we’re still a SELLER of all TSLA bear market bounces towards the top-end of my range, ping us.
TSLA’s current Risk Range (published daily in our RISK RANGE product) = $133-175.
You could have shorted the bloody thing as recently as AUG 2022 (when the Macro Unaware of #Quad4 were chasing all of the bubbles, again) and already made -55% from there.
*As a reminder, if you lose -66% in something, you need to be up +194% (from here) to get back to break-even.
Will the Storyteller Stock and Crypto Frauds ever get The People they fleeced back to break-even? Doubtful. That’s sad and pathetic, obviously. But it will provide an education to an entire generation of “investors” who don’t know what The Quads are.
All year long, we’ve been short TSLA and the #BubbleCaps via Consumer Discretionary (XLY). TSLA was 20% of that. Tech (XLK) has also been in our Top 3 Signal Strength Macro Shorts all year long. AAPL has been as tasty short there as of late.
Tastier is having Plenty of LONGS that are now working against our #Quad4 Alpha Shorts:
A) 16 of our current 19 Asset Allocations (Macro ETFs) were up on the day yesterday (see our Macro Pro subscription)
B) Top 5 in terms of Signal Strength currently include: BTAL, SLV, GLD, GDXJ, and TUR
Yep. I can’t wait until Gerbs and “Meet Kevin” (the 30 year old Youtuber whose ETF, PP, hit new lows yesterday) pivot to chasing some Turkey (TUR) and Junior Gold Mining (GDXJ) charts.
Not clear if they know what being Long Anti-Beta (BTAL) means… but it means being short of them in GK and PP terms! Btw, Bankman Fraud said he didn’t need to “read books” either.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 3.40-3.75% (neutral)
UST 10yr Yield 3.38-3.70% (neutral)
UST 2yr Yield 4.15-4.43% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 73.41-75.51 (bearish)
SPX 3 (bearish)
NASDAQ 10,391-10,991 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 122-130 (bearish)
Healthcare (XLV) 133-141 (bullish)
Defense (ITA) 108-112 (bullish)
Utilities (XLU) 68.79-72.90 (bullish)
VIX 20.33-25.15 (bullish)
USD 103.40-107.45 (bullish)
CAD/USD 0.727-0.741 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 70.09-78.64 (bearish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Silver 22.51-24.61 (bullish)
AAPL 128-139 (bearish)
TSLA 133-175 (bearish)
Bitcoin 16,307-18,040 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
