The Biden Administration announced it will provide Ukraine with a Patriot air defense missile battery. The Patriot is a mobile system that is designed to intercept ballistic missiles and can engage targets at greater ranges than the air defense systems Kyiv currently has in place.
Produced by Raytheon Corporation, it has been provided to numerous American allies around the world. Patriot units have been employed in combat since the Gulf War in 1991, and a battery normally consists of 90 soldiers, a control station, eight missile launchers, and a phased array radar system.
This decision is in response to urgent requests by Ukraine as it seeks to defend its cities from unceasing Russian missile and drone strikes. The most sophisticated ground-based air defense system in America’s arsenal, the Patriot is in many ways the most advanced weapons system Washington has provided Ukraine in this war. This decision underscores not only the Biden administration’s support for Kyiv but also its desire to seek the defeat of Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Improving Ukraine’s air defense networks has become a major priority. The massive Russian missile and drone campaign is focused on destroying civilian infrastructure in particular the nation’s electric power grid and water system. Overall Ukrainian officials report that 80% of the nation’s electric power generation system has been destroyed or damaged. The city of Odessa with 1.5 million inhabitants was recently plunged into darkness following a massive Russian drone assault. In many parts of the country, citizens only have electric power for a few hours per day as the winter temperatures continue to drop.
The chief of Ukraine’s energy network recently stated that Russia has now fired over 1,000 missiles and rockets at Ukraine since the start of the war, and the mayor of Kyiv has warned of an “apocalypse” scenario for his city if Russian missile and drone strikes against infrastructure continue unabated. Kyrylo O. Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, told Ukrainian media that Russia had used about 330 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in the war against Ukraine, of which 222 had been shot down. He said Russia had purchased about 1,700 Iranian drones, which were being delivered in batches of 300 at a time. For example, a recent attack against Kyiv allegedly included 13 Iranian-made Shahed-136 and 131 drones fired from the direction of the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
There are reports, however, that Russia may run out of reliable artillery ammunition and rockets by early next year and would have to depend on older systems or what they can buy from Iran and even North Korea. One Ukrainian expert believes Russia may "have missiles for another three to five waves of attacks," with a single wave deploying between 80 and 90 missiles. He also said Russia's defense industry is currently only able to produce around 40 precision-guided cruise missiles per month.
Kyiv's deputy intelligence chief stated that Russia is now launching missiles manufactured in Ukraine in the 1970s at Ukrainians. This includes the Kh-55 subsonic cruise missiles, though they are only equipped with a dummy warhead. It was salvaged and redesigned to function as a decoy and absorb Ukrainian air defense interceptors for subsequent attacks with missiles armed with live warheads.
Russia’s efforts to procure weapons abroad, meanwhile, demonstrates a level of desperation as this war continues into its ninth month. American officials fear Moscow is currently negotiating with Iran to purchase hundreds of missiles as well as additional drones. One U.S. diplomat said this would not only mark a significant increase in defense cooperation between Tehran and Moscow but also have “massive implications for security in the region.” The White House has also accused Iran of sending a small number of Iranian troops to Crimea to assist Russian forces in launching drones against targets in Ukraine.
It is unlikely the Patriot battery will arrive quickly, and this decision could take several months to implement. There is no indication that the Biden Administration is willing to deploy American or NATO soldiers on Ukrainian territory to man these systems. Ukrainian troops will have to be trained to operate the Patriot launchers, and it is unclear how long that will take. Washington has resisted providing these weapons prior to this due to the substantial training requirement, fear that they might be captured by advancing Russian forces, and the fact that there is a limited number in the U.S. military. Several other countries currently have orders for them with the American defense industry.
Furthermore, the Patriot will not solve all the challenges posed by the ongoing Russian aerial onslaught. The current model is effective against aircraft, helicopters, and ballistic or cruise missiles. But the Patriot does not perform well against drone attacks. This was demonstrated when Houthi rebels supported by Iran employed suicide drones against Saudi Arabia in 2019. That’s one reason the most recent U.S. military assistance to Ukraine included “counter-unmanned aerial systems” which are likely in response to the threat posed by drone attacks.
The decision to supply Patriot missiles, however, is not just about Ukrainian defense capabilities. This is clearly intended to underscore Washington’s commitment to the defense of Ukraine and comes only a few days after the most recent announcement of an additional $275 million in military assistance. This is the 27th drawdown of equipment from Pentagon inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 and brings the total level of security assistance provided Kyiv by the Biden Administration to over $20 billion.
The Biden administration had also resisted providing Patriot to Ukraine since it was viewed as an escalatory move that could trigger a significant Russian response. But the war has continued to evolve. Ukraine has achieved success on the battlefield, and Russian forces have floundered. With those results in hand, the White House has become increasingly willing to provide more sophisticated and essential capabilities to Kyiv, even telling members of Congress they believed the Ukrainians had the military capability to recapture Crimea. One expert observed that it has become increasingly clear so-called “Russian red lines are no more than bluff and bluster, like so much of the Kremlin’s rhetoric.”
Still, it is important to recognize that Moscow will feel compelled to respond in some fashion. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned NATO a few days ago that if Patriot missiles were provided to Ukraine they would “immediately become a legitimate target for Russian armed forces.” Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chair of the Federation Council’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, described the delivery of the missile as provoking “a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.” He further cautioned that Washington was “putting the world on the brink of a third World War.”
Consequently, Washington and its European allies must prepare to coordinate appropriate responses if these latest threats do not prove to be bluster. Moscow could escalate vertically on the battlefield in Ukraine or horizontally elsewhere such as through cyberattacks against a NATO member.
Putin is seeking to weaponize winter in the short term. His campaign to destroy civilian infrastructure is not only a violation of international law but also morally corrupt. It is a clear demonstration of the depravity of the Russian leadership. The ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy system have left almost seven million children in Ukraine without sustained access to electricity, heat, and water. It puts them at risk as temperatures across the country continue to drop.
But war remains a contest of will, and Putin still believes he is far superior to the West. His goal to subjugate Ukraine remains intact. Biden and the other NATO leaders must remain united in response to Putin’s aggression and continue to rally their respective populations in response to Moscow’s ongoing aggression. They must ensure that the capabilities they provide Ukraine continue to respond to the changing nature of this war and lead to a Russian defeat.
Patriot missiles will help protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from Russian missile attacks, but the Kremlin will surely throw further challenges at Kyiv — requiring U.S. and NATO support.
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EVENT TOMORROW, December 19 @ 11 AM | TAIWAN IN THE CROSSHAIRS: GEOPOLITICS, SUPPLY CHAINS + LONG TAIL RISKS IN THE Asia Pacific
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Hedgeye Technology & Hedgeye Macro Policy are hosting John Schaus, one of the top scholars on U.S.-China relations at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), to discuss Taiwan, China, and geopolitical supply chain moves on the heels of Xi Jinping’s election/ascension to an unprecedented third term. MONDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2022 AT 11:00 AM CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link). Topics we are likely to address:
Join us for what promises to be a riveting, if perhaps somewhat ominous, session. About John Schaus: John Schaus is a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he focuses on defense industry and Asia security challenges. His research areas include Asia-Pacific security issues and U.S. defense policy and industry, and he presents CSIS’s flagship presentation on future trends, “Seven Revolutions: Scanning the Horizon Out to the Year 2035 and Beyond.” Prior to rejoining CSIS in July 2014, he worked in the Office of Asian and Pacific Security Affairs (APSA) within the Office of the Secretary of Defense. His responsibilities there included day-to-day management of the U.S.-China military relationship; as special assistant to the assistant secretary of APSA, he coordinated work product and policy priorities for an office of 100, crossing two geographic combatant commands and including five U.S. allies. His most recent previous position was as regional policy adviser to the assistant secretary for APSA, where he oversaw Defense Department participation and represented the department in Asian multilateral defense organizations, as well as ensuring actions, budget, messaging, and planning aligned with broader U.S. efforts, in particular with the rebalance to the Asia Pacific. Prior to working in the Pentagon, Mr. Schaus served as executive officer to the president and CEO of CSIS for five years. He received a B.A. from St. John’s University in Minnesota, and an M.P.P. from the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs. |
