November Produce sales (SFM)
Total sales of food and beverages in November increased 10.4% YOY while units decreased 2.8%. Fresh produce sales increased by 4.2% exceeding last year’s record. Driven by Thanksgiving, sales of fresh vegetables accelerated in November to 6.8% YOY from 5% in Q3. Fresh fruit sales decelerated to +1.1% in November from 5% YOY in Q3 as seen in the chart below. The price per unit across all food and beverages in IRI measured channels increased 13.6% in the four weeks that ended November 27, flattish compared to October’s 13.7%. Inflation in November was up 17.0% in the center of the store while perishable inflation was 11.3%.
Fresh vegetables are a good measure of at home meal consumption because they are not stored and fresh fruit purchases are often in-store decisions based on appearance and price.
Online grocery slips (KR, WMT)
Online grocery sales in the U.S. decreased 10% YOY in November according to Brick Meets Click/Mercatus. The pickup channel MAU mix was flat YOY while ship to home fell from 44.6% last November to 41.8%. The mix of home delivery also decreased from 44.6% of sales to 41.8%. The decrease was driven by fewer households, lower order frequency, and a smaller basket. Households ordering online decreased 7%. Compared to last year grocery MAUs decreased 5% while the mass market MAUs increased 6%. The average number of monthly online orders decreased 3.4% YOY. Grocers have invested significant sums in online grocery since the pandemic, but the mass retailers are winning online. One of the synergies between Kroger and Albertsons is to roll out Kroger’s superior e-commerce offering to Albertsons stores.
Chick-fil-A on top (LANC)
Market Force Information’s new study shows that Chick-fil-A ranks as the top U.S. brand for food quality, restaurant atmosphere, speed of service, staff friendliness, and overall value. Chick-fil-A was rated 84% in the study’s composite loyalty index which measures all of those factors. The restaurant chain was also recently named the top chain on the American Customer Satisfaction Index, the 8th straight year it has been on top. In-N-Out Burger was #2 in the survey. Lancaster Colony manufactures all of Chick-fil-A’s sauces and dressings. The demand in the retail channel is behind the company’s construction of another plant to expand capacity for Chick-fil-A and other restaurant customers.
