CALL DETAILS:
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We will host our Food Retailers 2023 outlook call on December 20 at 12:30 PM ET. Hedgeye's Macro team continues to see further evidence that 1H23 is in Quad 4. The consumer has not seen this level of food inflation in a generation. Food inflation has peaked but will stay elevated despite easing input costs. Following the USDA's lead, the consensus has penciled in food-at-home inflation of 2.5% to 3.5% for 2023. We will show how our starting point for 2023 top-line growth for food retailers is north of 3%. We will also do a deep dive into the changing tailwinds and headwinds for the sector, followed by a critical driver analysis of how each of our covered food retailers is impacted.
Among the topics we will dive into are:
- The outlook for food inflation
- The changing consumer behavior
- Wallet share winners and losers
- Supply chain challenges
- Competitive activity
- Implications of a Kroger-Albertsons merger
- Input cost outlook
- Soft commodity outlook
- Gross margin outlook
- Traffic trends
- Government transfer payments
Stay tuned for additional details and possible rating changes based on our industry analysis and outlook.
