There is probably no health care subsector that benefited more from the recent unpleasantness quite like managed care. Benefit costs were reduced by local mandates or voluntary agreement throughout 2020. That was followed by intense public health messaging that stressed the (not unreasonable) dangers of a SARS-CoV-2 infection which may have led patients to err on the side of caution by staying away from the health care system, most especially hospitals. The shift in care patterns was most pronounced among the elderly. Most MCOs reported lower than usual benefit cost trends in Medicare.
Meanwhile, it is looking more likely that Medicaid will begin disenrolling in February, barring another extension by the Biden administration. Since the CBO has assumed the PHE will last until July, an early termination provides a tasty morsel of budgetary offset for lame duck spending. If that does not happen, Republicans in the House have pledged to end it and it looks like the Senate may go along. The ASPE estimates about 17% or 15M people will exit the program with some portion of that migrating to the health exchanges.
All of that adds up to some pretty unprecedented headwinds for a normally reliable sector.
Please join us next week as we dive deep into the major challenges (and a few opportunities) in 2023.
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Wednesday, December 7th @10 am ET (Add to Outlook Calendar) Connection Details. Live Video Only Link: https://app.hedgeye.com/feed_items/125621?with_category=48-health-policy Format: ~45 min with Q & A if time allows |
