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The Broadcast Will Begin Soon
TICKERS DISCUSSEDLONGS: GO, CPRI, BIRD, HCA, ECL SHORTS: SG, SFM, HBI, AFRM, LCID, MNDY, SE, BILI, MSFT OTHERS: DHI |
Broadcast Summary
- Monday, November 14 at 12:30 AM ET – Restaurants Black Book
- Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG): 3rd quarter since becoming a public company, missed two of the three; missed again, 43 cent lost; revenue was below consensus; guided down for Q4; estimates for next year are way too high; this company is a disaster, should never have come public; SG remains a short
Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi
- Grocery Outlet (GO): Reported a penny ahead; big same store sales beat; EBITDA only 2% ahead of expectations; this is a franchise grocery model, so they split profits with franchisees, but they did raise guidance; going to be more promotional, not going to sit back; GO remains a long
- Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): Company beat their own low bar; beat by 10 cents; gross margins were up; took back price investments on the product and put it into tv ads and marketing; this is not a gross margin expansion story; SFM remains a short
Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Sean Jenkins
- Tomorrow, November 10 at 10:00 AM ET – Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Monthly Q&A
- Sports Betting: It was anticipated that the commercial led online sports betting initiative would not pass in California; got torched at the polls yesterday; plenty of work to do to figure this out for the next election
- Capri (CPRI): Put out earnings this morning; beat in a meaningful way; kept full-year guidance; did take an FX hit; each of the brands did well; company bought back 7.1 million shares in the quarter; CPRI remains a long
- Allbirds (BIRD): Company reported last night and lost 17 cents which was in-line with the Street; Pod 1 accelerated; great balance sheet with a real brand; will grow in wholesale; BIRD remains a long
- Hanesbrands (HBI): Company beat the quarter by 2 pennies but missed on every KPI; top line looked awful, gross margins missed; company cut back half guidance; HBI remains on the short bench
Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans
- Flu: Flu season took off earlier than usual and is accelerating at a steeper curve; noteworthy on the HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) front; their urgent care center is called CareNow; HCA remains a long
Macro, Housing & Financials: Josh Steiner
- D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI): D.R. Horton came out with numbers; bad across the board; cancellation rate significantly accelerated two quarters in a row now; 1/3 contracts are being cancelled
- Affirm (AFRM): Reported earnings; came out with numbers that were disappointing; delinquency rates moving up quickly; these trends are accelerating; nothing positive or redeeming about this report; AFRM remains on the short bench
Industrials: David Talbott
- Ecolab, Inc. (ECL): Removing as best idea long; decent Quad 4 performer but the dynamics of this cycle are increasingly challenging relative to our March 2022 expectations; we can buy names today at much lower valuations that are less exposed to markets with structural uncertainty; ECL is now on the long bench
- Lucid Group (LCID): Earnings out last night; reservations declined sequentially for the first time; missed on both the top and bottom line with negative free cash flow; going to be raising money through stock sales; cash burn was worse than expectations; LCID remains a short
- Tomorrow, November 10 at 12:30 PM ET – Technology Black Book
- monday.com Ltd. (MNDY): New best idea short; hosting our deep dive Black Book tomorrow at 12:30pm ET; almost all the independent product experts we spoke with were already shifting to a superior tool called ClickUp with even better functionality, usability, and a more seamless GTM; the CRM launch was mostly just templates with an extra price that was causing confusion even among their most committed fans; MNDY is now a best idea short
- Friday, November 11 at 10:00 AM ET – China Black Book
Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur
- Microsoft (MSFT): EU did open a 2nd phase investigation into the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard deal; UK, EU, and FTC all looking at this deal; basic case to block this deal is not very strong; Call of Duty is Activision Blizzard’s main game
- Midterms: Senate is still a toss-up; still not over, still have Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona to go; Georgia is almost certainly heading to a runoff; Georgia run-off is on December 6th; lot of voter enthusiasm from both sides; we still think the Republicans will take the House and we will have divided government
