TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 18, 2011
Big Keynesian Intervention overnight from the G7 – Central Planners of the world unite! This is only going to perpetuate Price Volatility across asset classes as what’s happening in USD/FX markets remains the fulcrum for most of the massive correlation risk were trading in equities and commodities in particular. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or -1.55% downside to 1254 and 1.67% upside to 1295.
PERFORMANCE:
As of the close yesterday we have 1of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 3 of 9 sectors positive on TREND. Energy is the only sector that is positive on both TRADE and TREND.
- One day: Dow +1.39%, S&P +1.34%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell 2000 +0.46%
- Month-to-date: Dow (3.69%), S&P (4.03%), Nasdaq (5.26%), Russell (4.61%)
- Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +1.70%, S&P +1.28%, Nasdaq (0.63%), Russell +0.24%
- Sector Performance: - Energy +3.05%, Materials +1.78%, Industrials +1.66%, Financials +1.20%, Healthcare +1.17%, Tech +1.04%, Consumer Spls +0.48%, Consumer Disc +0.45%, Utilities +0.15%
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1401 (+3037)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1036.73 (-29.04%)
- VIX: 26.37 -10.31% YTD PERFORMANCE: +48.56%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.17 from 2.51 (-13.80%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Treasuries gave back some of their recent gains with dampened flight-to-quality.
- TED SPREAD: 22.69 -0.811 (-3.453%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08% -0.02%
- 10-Year: 3.25 from 3.22
- YIELD CURVE: 2.65 from 2.64
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- No major MACRO data points today
WHAT TO WATCH:
- H&R Block Chairman Richard Breeden to step down
- Fed may tell banks of dividend and buyback approvals
- Nasdaq’s possible NYSE bid may face delays, WSJ says
- U.S. House votes to end funding of National Public Radio
- U.S. senators will urge President Obama to widen budget talks
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:
- CRB: 348.67 +3.10 YTD: +4.77%
- Oil: 101.42 +3.51%; YTD: +10.49% (trading +0.79% in the AM)
- COPPER: 434.65 +3.49%; YTD: -2.39% (trading -0.84% in the AM)
- GOLD: 1,403.63 +0.48%; YTD: -0.30% (trading +0.86% in the AM)
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Japan’s Wagyu Beef Exports, Rice Output Threatened by Radiation From Plant
- Record U.S. Beef Price Gains as Costlier Corn Slows Feedlot Cattle Buying
- Oil Surges as UN Approves Libya No-Fly Zone; Credit Suisse Raises Forecast
- Corn, Wheat Surge to Highest in Week After U.S. Grain Shipments Increase
- Lead Climbs to Highest Since April 2008 as China Plans to Launch Futures
- Gold Climbs for Third Day as Unrest in North Africa Spurs Investor Demand
- Rubber May Extend Rebound on Export-Curb Plan, Quake Rebuilding in Japan
- Gold May Gain Next Week on Japan Crisis, Middle East Concern, Survey Shows
- Brent Oil Forecasts Raised by Credit Suisse on Mideast Disruption Concerns
- Tsunami-Hit Japanese Prefectures Grow Less Than 13% of Nation’s Rice Crop
- Posco Leads Asian Steel Stocks From Slump After Japan Quake: Chart of Day
- Japan to Start Testing Domestic Foods for Radioactivity, Ministry Says
CURRENCIES:
- EURO: 1.4010 +0.87% (trading +0.71%% in the AM)
- DOLLAR: 76.041 -0.83% (trading -0.01% in the AM)
EUROPEAN MARKETS:
Generally, European markets are trading higher for the second day. Eastern Europe continues to outperform with Kazakhstan, Estonia and Latvia leading the way. Spain and Greece are underperforming.
U.K. consumer confidence fell to a record low in February. The index dropped 10 points to 38, the lowest since records began in 2004.
Germany Feb PPI +6.4% y/y vs consensus +6.3% and prior +5.7%
- United Kingdom: +0.31%
- Germany: +0.51%
- France: +0.74%
- Spain: -0.14%
- Greece -0.25%
- Italy: +0.09%
- Greece: -0.43%
ASIAN MARKTES:
Most Asian market traded higher, with the exception of India and Pakistan down -1.49% and 2.03%, respectively.
The Reserve Bank of India raised its inflation forecast for the second time since late January and increased interest rates by 0.25% to 6.75% (the eighth move in a year).
China raised banks’ reserve requirements for the third time this year.
- Japan: +2.72%
- Hang Seng: +0.07%
- China: +0.33%
- India: -1.49%
- Taiwan: +1.35%
- South Korea +1.13%
Howard Penney
Managing Director
