[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Oil / Curve / VIX

FROM THE DESK

EVERYTHING in Global Macro is trading #Quad4 (again) this morning, other than certain US Equities…

1. OIL – got #Quad4’d again this week taking its Full Investing Cycle Crash to -28%. It’s a good thing no one was long Energy Stocks (down another -3.7% on the mainline XLE alone yesterday). We remain Long of Utilities (XLU) and Gold (GLD) vs. Short Commodities (which we were Long from June of 2020 until making the #Quad4 2022 turn which is starting to look like the 2H of 2008 for Oil btw)
2. CURVE – another day, another new Cycle Low for the 10s/2s spread which has A) inverted to -36bps (lowest since the last Growth Bubble imploded in 1) and B) not bounced at all because consensus hedge fund short positions aren’t crowded there! Phase II of The Bear Market will include a Peak Cycle Labor market rolling over, hard – will it today? I have no idea but I am long of 7-10yr UST (IEF)
3. VIX – remember the time (in March of this year) when the VIX went to 19-20 and the Old Wall Chartists chased everything from Bitcoin to the NASDAQ? I’d love to see a 20 VIX print sometime soon so we can get this bear market rally over with. The low-end of my VIX Risk Range does finally have a 20 in front-of it, so here’s hoping for another fantasy island bull market narrative that its 1982!

OUR LEVELS

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 2.57-2.96%

KM   

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer