Earnings Season
So far this earnings season:
- Consumers are not managing checks yet
- In-dining is returning
- Inflation accelerated into 2Q22
- Sales decelerated in June
- BLMN said July was better than June
- Quick Service is holding up better than Casual
- Lower quality names are using 2019 as a comparison
SBUX & Politics
SBUX is a SHORT
The CEO is fighting the notion that the company's operations have plateaued. Some decisions they made over the past few years as a company is starting to come back and affect how they run stores, which is a problem. Some "open" policies are contentious and, unfortunately, political and have caused them to rethink operations, especially their inner-city stores with accessible public bathrooms. It's affecting their paying customers. This forces the CEO to clamp down on some of its more liberal policies. The company is likely to shift its store operations toward a direction to entertain the customers are paying coming back every week. All of this suggests that more inner-city stores will close.
DASH/GRUB
DASH is a SHORT
According to NPD Group, US restaurant delivery order volume dipped 6.3% for the last 12 months ending in June, the first decline since 2016. Meanwhile, the Amazon x Grubhub partnership has brought in ~2mm new subscribers to the Grubhub+ subscription. A similar deal with Amazon and Deliveroo last year doubled its monthly subscribers to 1.5mm in the UK.
