Notable news items/price action from Friday’s trading session.

  • SBUX featured in an article in Barrons this weekend and reported sell-side views that earnings forecasts have 15% upside over the next 12 months.
  • MCD chief communications officer, Jack Daly, passed away on Saturday morning after a battle with cancer.
  • CMG is facing a wider probe of its hiring by immigration officials after the company came under scrutiny in Minnesota and had to fire workers. 
  • CHUX reported operating results for the fourth quarter of 2010 on Friday and results were disappointing.  Company-operated same-store sales came in at -1.4% and EPS from continuing operations of -$0.77 versus the Street at -$0.30.  Its shares declined on accelerating volume on Friday, underperforming casual dining peers.
  • GMCR shares gained 4.8% on accelerating volume to close out a strong week following well-received earnings results last week.
  • BWLD and EAT shares declined on accelerating volume.
  • CBRL and DIN shares gained on accelerating volume.
  • National Restaurant News reported a survey of consumers by Sandelman & Associates.  The top 10 chains based on the percentage of “excellent overall” ratings were:
  1. Café Rio
  2. Pei Wei Asian Diner
  3. In-N-Out Burger
  4. Raising Cane’s
  5. Chick-fil-A
  6. Captiotti’s
  7. Paradise Bakery
  8. Costa Vida
  9. Lenny’s Sub Shop
  10. Chipotle



Howard Penney

Managing Director


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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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