“Are you in the gap or the gain?”
- Dr. Ben Hardy
Are you making or losing money this year? Have you been long or short Meta (FB) and/or Mega #BubbleCaps? Do you “feel” like you are missing out on being long certain “stocks” this morning?
So many people in The Game, so many feelings. If there’s one thing that I coach about your day-to-day-decision-making, it’s #FADE your feelings! The aforementioned quote comes from one of the best books I’ve listened to (from a behavioral perspective).
“When you’re chasing happiness externally, it’s because you are disconnected internally. And when you’re disconnected internally, then you are trying to fill a GAP…
You could be in the GAP about getting the smaller half of a cookie… or you could be in the gap about your entire past.”
-The Gap and The Gain.
If you have anxiety, FOMO, etc., I highly encourage you to just stop it. Stop chasing. Start gaining, and building upon your gains.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
What gains? Let’s start with you reading this right now. That means you woke up on the right side of the grass. That’s a BIG gain.
Ok, good. What about the Full Investing Cycle & Risk Management #Process that you’re building alongside me and my teammates? Consider the alternative consensus of being Long GROWTH and Real “Vision” Crypto Crashes. You are in a relatively MASSIVE gain.
Oh yeah, now you’re feeling it, eh? Feeling a little better? You are big and massively huge!
In all seriousness, I am trying to be serious about this. Forget about your relative gains. Those aren’t going to pay the bills and show your outstanding performance like the ABSOLUTE gains you already have this year:
A) You are Long US Dollars as your #1 Asset Allocation and the bloody thing just went vertical vs. your Yen, Euro, etc. Shorts
B) You are Long Gold and Gold Miners (GDX) – unlike most things consensus owns, those are UP this year
C) You are Long Utilities (XLU), Staples (PBJ) and Indonesia (IDX) – those are all UP this year too
Stop it. Don’t cry me a river about Gold or Gold Miners being down for a week, breaking some Old Wall 50-day #MovingMonkey’s ass. That’s not who you are. That is not what you do. You do fractals. And you, are freaking killing it!
Remind me what other Macro Content Platform (the meta of front-running monkeys, Gabestop losses, and feelings?) is Long Indonesia vs. the following epic gains you have on the short side:
A) Bitcoin crash = down -42.8% from its #Quad2 Cycle Peak
B) Russell 2000 crash = down -22.8% from its #Quad2 Cycle Peak
C) NASDAQ crash = down -22.2% from its #Quad2 Cycle Peak
Ladies and Gentleman of #HedgeyeNation, you have The QUADS. You are in The GAIN!
Let’s forget about market returns for one paragraph and think about The People who are in The Gain. Economically, The People of both Indonesia (IDX) and Australia (EWA) are still in The #Quad2 Gain!
Long Australia has been another gainer (relative and absolute, baby) here in 2022. Its stock market was up +1.3% overnight after recapturing @Hedgeye TREND support of 7601 on the All-Ordinaries Index.
Will it hold @Hedgeye TREND support? Malaysia (EWM) didn’t. So I sold both that and Silver (SLV) yesterday. Why? Because they weren’t in the gain! Or at least the probability RISES that you don’t maintain prior gains if something snaps my TREND Signal.
Why not live your market life this way? Why are you holding on to both losers in your life and in your portfolio?
Have any formerly miserable friends who got divorced and started to “look” happy? Those feelings mattered. They were real. Just don’t make Asset Allocation decisions based on love. I never fall in love with a long position because I will eventually short it!
Like having quickies? Let’s do this now. Here’s a quick Re-Ranked Long/Short List:
Top 7 LONGs (ranked in terms of my current size, which changes as prices do):
- US Dollar (UUP)
- Gold (GLD)
- Utes (XLU)
- REITS (XLRE)
- Gold Miners (GDX)
- Australia (EWA)
- Staples (PBJ)
Top 7 SHORTS (ranked size wise too)
- Yen (FXY)
- High Yield (HYG)
- Junk (JNK)
- Discretionary (XLY)
- Russell (IWM)
- Tech (XLK)
- NASDAQ (QQQ)
Those are #timestamped (as of yesterday’s close) positions in the M&H MFO (Massive & Huge Mucker Family Office). When you look at those positions and their re-ranked size, what do you see?
Well, it’s actually what I see that matters most. Why? Because it’s mine. And you have yours. That’s the thing about living in your gaps (we will all have our moments) and gains – we all have our own unique and selfishly awesome capitalist experience.
*Coaching Note: As I said yesterday, I was grossing up my Yen Short position, so that’s why it’s at #1, short side. NASDAQ at #7 is because I COVER-SOME on RED. And I’m licking my meta bear chops to take that Core Short position up again.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 2.79-3.01% (bullish)
UST 10yr Yield 2.62-2.95% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 2.37-2.76% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 78.66-80.61 (bearish)
SPX 4120-4338 (bearish)
NASDAQ 12,303-13,183 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 138-148 (bearish)
Gold Miners (GDX) 33.20-42.76 (bullish)
Utilities (XLU) 72.00-77.75 (bullish)
REITS (XLRE) 47.58-50.83 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2 (bearish)
DAX 13,604-14,199 (bearish)
VIX 24.22-36.14 (bullish)
USD 100.11-103.59 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.051-1.086 (bearish)
USD/YEN 127.09-130.99 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.247-1.289 (bearish)
CAD/USD 0.774-0.791 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 96.43-108.16 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Copper 4.35-4.65 (bearish)
Silver 22.60-24.98 (bearish)
FB 168-220 (bearish)
GOOGL 2 (bearish)
TSLA 828-981 (bearish)
Bitcoin 37,001-41,907 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
