"Risk happens slowly, then all at once"
If you follow Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at all, then you certainly aren't a stranger to that phrase.
And if you subscribe to the Hedgeye #process, then you definitely aren't a stranger to the #Quad4 In Q2 macro call that we made in January of this year.
"Wait... what's #Quad4?"
That's #Quad4. And it gets bloody.
Simply put, our GIP Model is a quantitatively oriented, regime-based framework that helps investors proactively prepare for volatility phase transitions within and across asset classes. #Quad4 is what happens when Growth is slowing while Inflation decelerates within that framework.
To keep it even simpler: #Quad4 is where sh*t hits the fan.
Unlike mainstream media talking heads pushing narrative based nonsense, we have been proactively protecting our subscribers during these periods of market turbulence.
We made the call for #Quad4 back in January giving you ample time to position accordingly. Did you act?
Below are a handful of selected excerpts (along with publishing dates) from a few of our Early Look notes that were sent to subscribers every morning to keep them macro aware for the day ahead.
Sign up now to stay informed.
BUY #RateSensitivity NOW! (1/6/22)
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Post yesterday’s rate hike panic and the commensurate Doomberg terminal headlines this morning about “4 Fed hikes” and an “urgency” for rates to go higher, our proprietary @Hedgeye Inflation Nowcast continues to fall… Why? That’s why. If the Fed “hikes” 4x this year, I think the 10yr Yield could drop 100 basis points from The Cycle high. Heck, I think the UST 10yr Yield will drop at least 50 basis points from here if the Fed tightens into our #Quad4 in Q2 US economic #slowing view in… wait on it… Q2! WHY? A) Just reverse the numbers from what I was writing to you on this day LAST year The more Fed hikes, the faster “risk on” markets are going to go from disinflation to deflation. Write that down. And if you don’t get what RAISING RATES INTO A SLOWDOWN (i.e. #Quad4) does to the riskiest and most speculative assets (see Bitcoin or Cathie’s Longs for details), you’ll see it in a hurry. You already have. |
bUBBLES bURSTING into #QUAD4 (1/13/22)
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“Bubbles”? How could one have been long bubbles? It’s so “intellectually dishonest” to their “valuation” centric targets! While I was sufficiently bullish (at this time last year), buying every bubble there was from Bitcoin to whatever Small Cap & SPAC Crap my analysts were pitching me before we hit the Mother of All Perpetuators of Bubbles (i.e. #Quad2 in Q2 of 2021)… I’m #out of all that. That’s not new this morning. Unlike the ideologues who HODL, I sell (and sold) anything that breaks my back-tested @Hedgeye TREND Signal. That saved both my family and yours a LOT of moneys in something like Ethereum, btw! It’s not that everyone’s stock or crypto “ideas” aren’t totally cool. It’s just that they look like complete bs in #Quad4. The market, of course, has already been discounting this #Quad2 Bubble Exit as we approach a big time #Quad4 in Q2 of 2022. All the while, these brainiacs like Brainard at the Fed, think they can “raise rates” into a pending #Quad4 Slowdown. |
#QUAD4 tAIL rISKS (1/24/22)
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"And front-month SP500 Volatility is now signaling that the probability is rising for a VIX breakout > 30. Will the new puffer fish Fed perpetuate a TRENDING breakout in VIX? The Machine is daring them to play that game of chicken with markets. The Fed, of course, doesn’t know it’s going to be a deepening #Quad4 come Q2 inasmuch as they had no idea that INFLATION was going to breakout like we nowcasted at this time last year. That’s not my problem. It’s both theirs and whoever invests alongside their outlook" |
rISK MANAGING #QUAD4 (2/7/22)
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"Both Super LATE CYCLE Labor & COMMODITY #accelerations almost guarantee that the Fed will be making a Policy Mistake, raising rates, and flattening the Yield Curve as the economy slows into a DEEP #Quad4 in Q2. The Bond Market gets that at this point . . . Risk managing #Quad4, from here, looks about as straight forward as #Quad Setups get." |
