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| Enrollment in two-year skilled trades programs is booming. Their fortunes are rising as enrollment at four-year colleges and community colleges continues to fall. (NPR) |
NH: Two-year colleges have borne the brunt of declining enrollment in higher ed, with enrollment down more than -14% compared to two years ago. (See “College Enrollment Continues to Fall.”).
But program-specific data show that not all fields are shrinking. While enrollment in majors like English and the physical sciences has fallen sharply, two-year programs in skilled trades are booming.
From 2019 to 2021, enrollment in two-year agriculture and agriculture operations programs surged by +38% nationally--by far the largest increase of any community-college program. Enrollment in construction trades programs grew by +5%, while architectural programs were up by +4%.
Over the same period, enrollment in nearly every other type of community-college program--including business, social sciences, communications, health professions, and law enforcement--declined.
We first discussed the return of the skilled trades all the way back in 2015 (see "Voc-Ed Makes a Comeback"). The combination of the pandemic, a hot job market, the recent relative jump in noncollege wages, and continually rising college costs have only served to make traditional schooling even less appealing.
Much of the recent growth in the skilled trades has happened since the pandemic started. In fall 2021, for instance, enrollment in construction trades jumped nearly +18% YoY.
Precision production, which includes metalworking and leatherworking, increased by just under +10%. Mechanic and repair technologies was up by +7%.
In our last piece about declining college enrollment, I speculated that more young people might end up passing on higher ed altogether in favor of getting a job.
These numbers paint a more nuanced picture in which those who are still attending two-year programs are increasingly diverting their efforts to those with strong job prospects and good pay. Traditional four-year degrees, along with two-year degrees that lead to four-year degrees, are losing their luster.
But the skilled trades are looking better than ever.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
