Will Crime Be an Issue in the Midterms? NewsWire

NewsWire: 4/21/22

• Fully 53% of Americans now say that they worry about crime “a great deal.” The GOP is already signaling they will focus on the issue in the midterms. (Gallup)
  
• NH: Last week, the RNC published a press release stating that "Joe Biden and Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies have destroyed American cities, emboldened criminals, and put Americans in harm's way." That's some strong rhetoric, and it undoubtedly signals the GOP will focus on crime in the upcoming midterms. So let's explore voters' views on the topic.
• Compared to other issues, Americans generally regard crime as a second-tier problem. When Gallup asked respondents to name the most important issue facing the country, the top answers were poor government leadership, inflation, the economy in general, and Russia. Crime barely registered. But when Gallup asked respondents what problems facing the country do you personally worry about, crime placed fourth. 80% say they worry about crime a "great deal" or a "fair amount." That's the highest reading since 2008. 

• At the same time, Americans are significantly less worried about crime in their own communities. In October 2021, only 37% of Americans stated there was an area within a mile of their home "where [they] would be afraid to walk alone at night." And only 14% said crime is an "extremely" or "serious" problem where they live.

• Why are Americans so worried about crime nationally but not locally? The optimism gap can explain part of this. People are almost always more likely to give negative answers when asked about a national trend than when asked about that same trend in their own neighborhood. (See "Most Parents Are OK with Their Kids' Schools.")
• But I suspect it's also linked to the unusual dynamics of the recent rise in violent crime. As we have written in previous NewsWires, violent crime rose in 2020 and 2021. But this spike mostly affected the relatively small share of the population already experiencing lots of crime. In other words, it makes sense that, even if more people may be worried about the presence of crime nationally, not many more people have actually witnessed this presence in their own neighborhoods. (See "FBI Releases Official 2020 Crime Report.”) 
• Some historical context is also helpful. Worries about crime are nowhere close to levels recorded in the 1980s through the early 2000s, when criminality spiked among late-wave Boomer youth and early-wave Xer youth. (See "Millennials Drive the Secular Decline in Crime Rates.") In 1982, 48% of Americans said there was an area close to them "where they would be afraid to walk alone at night." And in March 2001, a staggering 88% of Americans said they worry about crime and violence a "fair amount" or "a great deal." 
• So will crime be an issue in the midterms? I suspect yes. Rates of violent crime have risen substantially since the pandemic began, and people are worrying more about it. While crime may not be the public's top concern, it is an issue that may sway a lot of independent voters who may be persuaded to go Republican. It's certainly an issue that Americans trust the GOP more than Democrats to handle. And Republicans will try to take advantage of that edge.