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Below is an excerpt from a complimentary research note by our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan. For more GLL research, check out Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Pro. |
No change this AM across the highest frequency, forward looking, leisure travel barometer that we track. The trend in flight search data is unequivocally higher.
The data broke out late last June and again in November but faded as Covid waves hindered traveler confidence, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year.
War in Ukraine and higher transatlantic ticket costs could be contributing to international demand stalling out a bit, but domestic searches are more than making up for that softness. Still, international demand has improved a lot since the start of oil surges and geopolitical risks ensued.
For context, the Kayak data for the US through 4/17/21 (last yr.), domestic flight search demand was ~-10% vs ’19 and Intl. search demand was -45%.
Through 4/17/22, domestic flight search increased was ~13% while international demand fell ~18%, a marked improvement relative to prior year, the beginning of the year, and a nice overall acceleration for the aggregate timeseries.
We think the leisure industry will have a compelling story to tell in the coming weeks as earnings start to roll in.
