Good afternoon, As always, email us if you have any questions on any of the data or our takeaways - .
KEY CALL OUT
CLICK HERE for the full weekly update - our Sector Distillation deck.
Overall, there wasn't much movement between the bins this past week, but we expect further rotation as earnings reports roll in and the sell side adjusts NTM estimates. We have some history with Mednax (MD), the lone new Micro Quad Long this week, and the Estimate Trend continues to improve with a July inflection looking more likely by the week. The upturn in the estimate trend may overlap nicely with an exit from Macro Quad 4.
HCA is our latest promotion to a Best Idea on the Long Side given a Macro Quad 4 backdrop, and it sits in Micro Quad 1, which has filled up recently as next 12-month (NTM) consensus estimate momentum cycles around the clock, so to speak. It joins Short Ideas EXAS, TXG, and EYE in the smaller short bin in our model portfolio; however, we're relying on additional field work and quantitative screening that collectively suggest there's upside for HCA shares from here. We will continue to monitor the Micro Quad 1 bin for stocks that appear likely to "make the turn" to Micro Quad 2 vs. slip back to Micro Quad 4, which is where Teladoc (TDOC) and Quest (DGX) remain stuck for another week.
New Longs: MD
Longs reduced allocation: CERN (now less than 2% upside to ORCL's $95/share offer).
Shorts reduced allocation: RMD
MICROQUADS*
If you have questions about the #MicroQuad process and how we're using it, please try to find ~13 minutes to watch the beginning of our March 24, 2022 call replay: Quad, Factor, Fundamentals, or How to Find A Story Worth Telling - CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link, as well as an overview of our Factor Scoring work). Stocks in bold are new to the bin this week.
ESTIMATE REVISION TRENDS
Position Monitor Stocks**
Model Portfolio Performance
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any feedback or inquiries.
Best,
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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William McMahon
Analyst
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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
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*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
**We may show stocks that we have data for but the correlation fails to meet the criteria for MQ bin inclusion week-to-week.
