Hedgeye Chart of the Day: Minefield
Open Real-Time Alert (RTA)* Positions:
4.11.22 - Sell Signal - Shorting WY $39.28 (LINK)
4.6.22 - Buy Signal - Buying PGRE $10.68 (LINK)
* This does not represent a change to our Position Monitor, but is a part of Hedgeye's risk management process.
Tickers: PGRE, SLG, VNO, BXP, KRC, DEI, ESRT, JBGS, BDN, CUZ, HIW, WE, HPP, ONL, WRE, NYC, PDM, OFC
Subsector: CBD / Suburban Office
Headline: Kastle Systems Back-to-Work Barometer
Office Utilization: Kastle Systems released its weekly office utilization tracker for the 7-day period ending 4.6.22, which showed another +110bps sequential increase in the 10-city average utilization rate to 43.1%, which is the third consecutive weekly increase (Figure 1 below). Utilization rates remain at-to-slightly-below pre-Omicron variant levels across most markets. As a reminder this metric tracks "bodies through turnstiles," and is different than "occupancy" in the traditional real estate sense which represents tenant leased/occupied space as a percentage of total square feet. 8 of 10 markets showed improvement for the week, led by some of the lagging markets in Chicago (+320bps to 37.8%), SF (+240bps to 34.2%), and New York (+150bps to 38.3%). Dallas and San Jose were the only decliners, down -50bps to 50.9% and down -50bps to 33%, respectively. It is just very difficult here to discern a sustained trend, but over the last few weeks there has been an acceleration in the RoC of utilization improvement across most markets, with the exception of LA, DC, Philadelphia and Dallas.
Separately, as a reminder yesterday we added MPW to the Best Idea Short list with a Black Book scheduled for 4/21. We will be heads down finishing up that work over the next few days, so barring exceptional events the frequency of publishing may be lower.
Figure 1: Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer for Week Ending 4.6.22
Source: Kastle.com
Prior Notes:
4.12.22 - EVENT INVITE | MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST (MPW) BLACK BOOK | THURSDAY, 4/21 @ 10:00AM ET
4.10.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.10.22 | (MACRO STYLE FACTORS)
4.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.8.22 | (PLD)
4.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.7.22 | (OFFICE UTILIZATION, PGRE)
4.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 4.5.22 | (AMH, MAA, MPW)
4.3.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.3.22 | (CXW)
4.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.1.22 | (CPT, INVH)
3.31.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.31.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
3.30.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SELF-STORAGE ASSUMPTIONS | 3.30.22 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA, PSA)
3.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.27.22 | (CXW, INVH, ONL, WE)
3.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | PGRE REJECTS MONARCH OFFER | 3.22.22 | (PGRE)
3.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.20.22 | (INVH)
3.18.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | COLD REMAINS TOP SHORT IDEA | 3.18.22 | (COLD)
3.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SFR ASSUMPTIONS SHEET | 3.16.22 | (AMH, INVH)
3.15.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.15.22 | (SUI)
3.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.13.22 | (INVH)
3.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.11.22 | (WE)
3.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.9.22 | (OFFICE UTILIZATION)
3.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.8.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, AMH, INVH, TCN, ILPT)
3.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.6.22 | (WE)
3.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.4.22 | (WE)
3.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.4.22 | (RADI MODEL UPDATE)
3.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.1.22 | (WE)
3.1.22 - FOLLOWING UP W/ ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON HR | 2.28.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.28.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.28.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 2.27.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.26.22 - UPDATE FOLLOWING MONARCH BID | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.26.22 | (PGRE)
2.24.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.24.22 | (COLD 4Q21 RESULTS)
2.24.22 - UPDATE ON INVH COURT CASE | 2.24.22 | (INVH)
2.24.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.24.22 | (PGRE)
2.23.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.23.22 | (INVH, COLD)
2.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (A LITTLE EARLY FOR FUN!) | 2.20.22 | (INVH SHORT)
2.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.17.22 | (INVH)
2.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.16.22 | (UHAL)
2.15.22 - INVH 4Q21 RESULTS | JUST NOT ENOUGH | 2.15.22 | (INVH)
2.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ - SUPER BOWL EDITION | 2.13.22 | (UHAL)
2.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.11.22 | (OFC 4Q21 RESULTS)
2.10.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.10.22 | (REXR 4Q21 FOLLOW-UP)
2.9.22 - REXR'S FY22 OUTLOOK DISAPPOINTING | 2.9.22 | (REXR)
2.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.9.22 | (EGP)
2.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.8.22 | (REXR, APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
2.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 2.6.22 | (RADI)
2.4.22 - EVENT REPLAY | RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASRUCTURE (RADI) BLACK BOOK
2.2.22 - AVB FY22 GUIDANCE CONSERVATIVE | 2.2.22 | (AVB)
2.1.22 - EQR 4Q21 EARNINGS BEAT | 2.1.22 | (EQR)
1.31.22 - POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 1.31.22 | (O, NNN, WY, CUBE, LSI)
1.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.30.22 (AVB, EQR, WE)
1.27.22 - EVENT INVITE | RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASRUCTURE (RADI) BLACK BOOK | FRIDAY, 2/4 @ 10:00AM ET
1.27.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.27.22 | (OFC)
1.26.22: REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | 1.26.22 | (RADI)
1.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.26.22 | (COLD)
1.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.25.22 | (APARTMENTS, OFFICE UTILIZATION)
1.25.22 - Will $MSTR Be Forced To Sell Their Bitcoin? (Bonus)
1.23.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.23.22
1.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.21.22 | (COLD)
1.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.19.22 | (AMH, WE)
1.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.19.22 | (PLD, COLD)
1.17.22 - MONDAY NIGHT HOLIDAY REIT READ | 1.17.22 (RADI, PLD)
1.12.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.12.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
1.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.11.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
1.10.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.10.22 | (WE, REXR)
1.9.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.9.22
1.6.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.6.22 | (PSA, POSITION MONITOR)
1.5.22 - ESRT <--> PGRE: A WIN-WIN ALL AROUND? | 1.5.22 | (ESRT, PGRE)
1.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.4.22 | (PGRE)
1.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.3.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE, PGRE)
12.29.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.29.21 | (Position Monitor, TCN, DLR, EQIX, ELS, SUI)
12.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.23.21 | (AVB, CPT, EQR, MAA)
12.21.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.21.21 | (BRG, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.19.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA)
12.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.17.21 | (Storage, Manhattan Office)
12.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.16.21 | (FR)
12.15.21 - EVENT REPLAY | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.14.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.14.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.12.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.12.21 | (WE)
12.11.21 - EVENT REMINDER | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.10.21 | (ESRT)
12.8.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.8.21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.7.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.7.21 | (SLG)
12.6.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.6.21 | (WE NOVEMBER OPERATIONS UPDATE)
12.5.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.5.21 | (PGRE, EGP, PLYM, MAA, CPT, O, EPR)
12.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.2.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - IGNORE CNBC RE: WEWORK RESTATEMENT | 12.1.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.1.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.30.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.30.21 | (AMH)
11.28.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.28.21 | (COLD)
11.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.23.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.21.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.21.21 | (WE)
11.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.19.21 | (CUBE)
11.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.17.21 | (STYLE FACTOR WORK)
11.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.16.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.15.21 - CUBE ANNOUNCES STABILIZED ACQUISITION | 11.15.21
11.15.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.15.21 | (WE, ILPT)
11.14.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.14.21 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA)
11.11.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.11.21 | (LSI, NYC CBD OFFICE)
11.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.10.21 | (UHAL, CONE, COR, NSA, PSA)
11.9.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.9.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, SFR)
11.7.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.7.21 | (APARTMENT RENTAL RATE TRACKER, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | AMH 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | CUBE 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.4.21 | (COLD, IRM, EARNINGS SURPRISE MONITOR)
11.3.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (LSI, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (PSA, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.1.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.1.21 | PSA 3Q21 RESULTS
10.31.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.31.21 | (3Q21 EARNINGS SURPRISES, POSITION MONITOR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10.28.21 | CPT 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.28.21 | (EXR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/28/21 | INVH 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/27/21 | AVB 3Q21 RESULTS
10.27.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.27.21 | (3Q21 Earnings, AVB, EXR, Office)
10.26.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/26/21 | EXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.26.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.26.21 | (EQR, REXR)
10.25.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.24.21 | (POSITION MONITOR)
10.21.21. - REIT RECAP | 10/21/21 | REXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.20.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.20.21 | (EGP, PLYM, REXR, ILPT)
10.19.21 - VIDEO | American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Thesis
10.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.19.21 | (COLD, SLG, VNO, AMH, U.S. Office Utilization)
10.18.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.18.21 | (PLD)
10.17.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.17.21 | (PLD, POSITION MONITOR)
10.15.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/15/21 | PLD 3Q21 RESULTS
10.13.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.13.21 | (PLD)
10.10.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.10.21 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
10.8.21 - BLACK BOOK ROUND-UP | AMERCO (UHAL)
10.7.21 - BEST IDEA ROUND-UP | AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
