On-premise visit intentions increasing (BUD)
According to the latest CGA survey from April 1-4, more consumers are planning on visiting on-premise locations. In the last two weeks of March two-thirds of respondents had visited a restaurant to eat and 40% have visited a restaurant/bar for a drink. In the next two weeks, 71% intend to eat out and 44% plan to go out for a drink. The percentage of people comfortable with indoor seating only was 77% in the latest survey, up 5% points from November. 6% said they were uncomfortable.
Wine recovery (VWE, NAPA)
Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America’s SipSource reported that its wine index nearly doubled in February from the prior year. February reached 80, up from 77 in January and 42 a year ago. The index is on a rolling 12 month basis indexed to pre-pandemic 2020. The index for spirits indicates a quicker recovery than for wine. The fastest recovery by varietal has been in cava while sherry, malbec, sauvignon blanc, and white blends. For wine, restaurants are at 84 compared to 100 in February 2019 while bars are at 86. The slowest recovery has been in transportation at 43 and lodging at 60. We recently published our future of wine black book. We see the tasting rooms (boosting digital) and restaurants having the strongest performance for wine this year while off-premise will continue to have difficult comparisons.
Bird flu (CALM, VITL)
Egg laying hens have accounted for two of every three birds that have died of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). It is spread by migrating wild birds so it is difficult to contain. So far it has been detected in 100 commercial flocks and in 30 states. 24 million poultry birds have been lost to date. Roughly 4% of the egg producing hens have died in the two months since HPAI was confirmed. In the 2014-15 outbreak more than 50 million birds, including 12% of egg-laying hens died. Egg prices have historically surged during past outbreaks, averaging 50%+. The USDA’s Midwest regional egg report said retailers paid $2.85 per dozen up from $1.25 in March. Egg demand historically rises ahead of Easter, which is on April 17 this year. It is common for egg prices to double ahead of Easter.
