Below is a complimentary Demography Unplugged research note written by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe. Click here to learn more and subscribe.
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Many of America's largest cities saw big population declines in 2021--but the biggest declines happened in the most Democratic states. Blue zone behemoths like New York and Los Angeles lost hundreds of thousands of residents, while Sun Belt metros generally flourished. (The New York Times) |
NH: The Census recently published its annual population estimates for the year ending in July 2021.
Last week, we analyzed the data at the county level. (See "73% of US Counties Experienced Natural Decrease in 2021.”) Now we examine population changes at the city level.
The ten cities with the largest absolute population gains were predominantly in red-zone America: Seven out of the ten were in states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Conversely, nine out of the ten cities with the largest absolute declines were in states that voted for Joe Biden.
The same pattern held true in percentage terms. The top ten metro growth rates were all in states that voted Republican in 2020. And six out of the bottom ten metro growth rates were in states that voted Democratic.
Over the last few years, we have seen a shift away from the tech-centric super cities of the blue zone. These metro areas are largely unaffordable and riddled with inequality. (See "Biggest Metros Spawning Greatest Inequality.")
The pandemic did not stop this trend. It accelerated it. Last year witnessed record migration to Sun Belt cities, where housing prices and tax rates are considerably lower.
Nationwide, the largest percentage gainers tended to be smaller cities with less than a million people. Feeding this trend, in part, was the flight from Democratic supercities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
