We covered a ton of ground in the studio, including updates/data highlights on HCA, TXG, EYE, ACHC, CANO, XHE, BAX, ATIP, LFST, and TDOC.
Everything you need to catch up is below, including all the slides that are usually included in the weekly Micro Quads and Estimate Trends update (slides 8-18; CLICK HERE to access the presentation).
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Hedgeye House Call + Q&A | The Doctor is In | Position Monitor Moves (CANO, LFST, EYE, HCA), Micro Quads Health Care Subscribers: CLICK HERE to watch
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TIME STAMPS & BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS
00:14 - Intro
01:05 - Macro environment; still heading into Quad 4, which is relatively good for Health Care
02:05 - ETFs... XLV does not do well in Quad 3, but we've got the pent-up demand story with medical consumption accelerating and that's + for equipment (XLV, XBI, XHE, XHS)
04:52 - Position Monitor updates
06:16 - Micro Quad & Estimate Trend slides start (slide 12, bottoming effect for Estimate Trend)
14:00 - Factor Scoring
21:13 - Utilization Rising while Staffing Shortage Persist: slide 33, JOLTS (22:40)
23:28 - HCA Forecast Algo +
24:22 - TXG & Grant Activity and new starts: slide 37
27:14 - EYE... pent-up demand evaporated, forecast algos call for deceleration
29:40 - ACHC Patient Share & Hourly Wages (slide 42), forecast algo
31:24 - CANO locations trackers and why it looks expensive
32:48 - Q&A
- 32:50 - COVID Stocks in Quad 4: Quantifying factor exposure, incremental deceleration on top line, re-rating of multiples (Moderna screaming short, PFE in Micro Quad 4)
- 35:04 - Medical Equipment Manufacturers in trend and tail: "pretty healthy" with surgical volume as a driver, can last a couple of years and providers can pay for labor because there's a margin there; equipment should have incremental demand and a tailwind as long as volume is there (harder for services side - ACHC, XHS shorts)
- 37:24 - BAX catalysts (leverage to hospital setting +)
- 39:35 - ATIP and PT in recessions - backdrop is + (surgeries = more PT cases); tracker update this week, hard to know what's going on w/ CEO, but guide might have been sandbagged
- USPH - relatively strong, solid forecast algo performance
- 46:40 - LFST and the 80% retention stat, feedback from the field, impact of labor (and #flow thesis), tracker and anecdotes not lining up well, bad factor exposure
- 52:38 - TDOC in the $70s... It's a story and we're always waiting for something - P360 comes next year, but there's margin degradation; brick & mortar is catching up and virtual only isn't a great place to be (still no urgency to cover the short)
As always, all data is available upon request, and reach out to with any inquiries or to set up a call.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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