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Almost three-quarters of US counties experienced natural decrease in 2021. At the same, nearly two-thirds of counties experienced net-positive migration. (Census Bureau) |
NH: In January, the Census released population data for the year ending in July 2021. And the results showed record low growth: The U.S. population rose by just +0.1% YoY and the rate of natural increase rose by +0.045% YoY. (See "U.S. Population Growth Nearly Comes to a Standstill.")
Now the Census has released 2021 population numbers on the county-level. So let's dig into the results.
Last year, a whopping 73.1% of U.S. counties experienced a natural decrease. That's a significant rise from the previous two years. In 2019 and 2020, only 45% and 55% of counties experienced more deaths than births, respectively.
This rise is undoubtedly due to falling births, an aging society, and increased mortality from Covid-19. These natural declines largely took place in rural communities.
But the majority of counties (58.0%) still experienced overall population gains.
How is this possible? The natural decrease in many rural counties was offset by people migrating from the small number of places with natural increases.
65.6% of counties experienced net-positive domestic migration. This is largely the result of Americans moving away from cities during the pandemic.
The counties with the largest numeric population growth essentially mimic where Americans are moving: the Sun Belt.
Out of the ten biggest gainers, five were in Texas, two in Florida, and one each in Arizona, Utah, and California. These areas are popular due to lower taxes and more affordable housing.
Conversely, the counties with the biggest population losses were in regions people are moving away from: the West and the Northeast. Out of the ten biggest losers, four were in California, four in New York, and one each in Illinois and Florida.
These areas have higher tax rates, higher living costs, and are home to the supercities in which most working-class people can no longer afford to live. (See "Biggest Metros Spawning Greatest Inequality" and "Rising Concern Over Affordable Housing.")
Other big gainers in percentage terms--though not in absolute numbers--were gorgeous rural counties in Great Basin and Rocky Mountain States (see county map above.) That's where many people choose to live when they can work online, courtesy of the pandemic.
BTW, it surely did not escape our notice that nine of the ten counties experiencing the greatest increases in 2021 were in red-zone states; and nine of the ten experiencing the greatest declines were in blue-zone states. It's way too early to tell, but thus far, the red-zone gain in reapportionment that we noticed in 2010-2020 is on its way to a possible repeat in 2020-30. (See "Winners and Losers in 2020 Census.")
We will be publishing a follow-up NewsWire on population changes by county size in the coming days. So stay tuned.
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.
