DASH IS NOt AMAZON
We are adding DASH to the BEST IDEA SHORT list.
We took DASH off the LONG list when we made our #Quad4 pivot backing January. The concerns we had backing January have only increased with Brent oil at $120, and the stock is back to $115. We will be outlining our thoughts in an upcoming Black Book in early April, but here are the primary concerns:
- Eating out has become very expensive, making a delivered meal even more. Restaurant delivery occasions will slow meaningfully with hyperinflationary menu prices increasing and or a recession.
- DASH is not AMZN! DASH needs to show continued improvement in profitability. DASH is in a similar position to what GRUB was in during the 2017/18 years. DASH faces several private well-capitalized competitors in the grocery/convenience space and profitability is not the primary concern. Instacart, GoPuff, and Getir are moving aggressively in the 15-minute–delivery service for grocery/convenience retailers. DASH will need to invest heavily in GoPull like warehouses, which it can't afford to do to remain competitive and profitable at the same time.
- At the same time, DASH needs to justify its $7.6 billion purchase of Wolt and invest internationally.
- The current consensus of a 1Q22 operating loss of ($140M) improving to a loss of ($99M) by 4Q22 is unlikely to happen. It's not out of the realm of possibility the company could lose more in 4Q22 than in 1Q22.
BYND MEAT JERKY?
BYND is a SHORT
For years we have heard from the CEO of BYND how great his product would be at MCD. And now there is a sell-side report saying the MCD 600 store test is not going well! For the record, BYND or Impossible Foods have not seen success at any major chain. On the subject of products that will not be successful, Beyond Meat and PepsiCo announced the debut of Beyond Meat Jerky as the first product coming out of the Planet Partnership joint venture. Beyond Meat Jerky is an on-the-go snack experience that offers traditional beef jerky in original, hot & spicy, or teriyaki flavors. Beyond Meat Jerky contains 10g of protein per serving, no cholesterol, and is made with simple, plant-based ingredients like peas and mung beans. The Planet Partnership JV is said to combine BYND's leading technology in plant-based protein development and PepsiCo's (PEP) world-class commercial capabilities. The launch of Beyond Meat Jerky signals the first of many plant-based protein innovations from the JV.
TBD on this!
SG Pick Up Window
SG is a SHORT
Is SG taking a page out of the CMG playbook with a pickup window?
Are drivers going to sit in a car and watch employees preparing the meals?
The forthcoming Sweetgreen restaurant at 1320 N. Meacham Road in Schaumburg will be the first of the chain's locations to feature a pickup window for app orders and a round observation window for those in line to view employees preparing meals. Daily Herald
