Last week we added Chipotle to our Short list citing slowing leverage in its business model, concern over its stage-gate process becoming stale, and expectations for "AUVs above $2.5M with margins at or above 25%" are too fast.
We see difficult comparisons, slowing digital growth, and less impactful innovation leading to slowing sales trends. With labor wage increases, elevated food costs, and a variety of inflationary pressures we question where the leverage will come from in the business model. Consensus margin estimates are too aggressive.
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The investment themes for our call:
While there are some reasons to be LONG CMG, we believe these elements might make their way to center stage as we move past the covid era and enter a more normalized eating-out environment.
