ULTRA-FAST DELIVERY CALL
On Monday, 3/14 @ 2 PM, we will be hosting a call with Matt Newberg, Founder, HNGRY. HNGRY is a subscription media platform exploring how Technology reshapes our food system through trends like ghost kitchens, micro grocery fulfillment, fungi-based proteins, personalized nutrition, and much more. The call will take a deep dive into the business models of the critical food delivery companies. We will also discuss the viability of the vertically-integrated convenience delivery model and the implications of critical players like DASH, AMZN, UBER, and others.
Subscribers CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link)
Topics include:
- How big can the 1st party ultrafast delivery category be? Is this a positive for DASH's DashMart service?
- What are the drawbacks of vertically integrated quick commerce?
- Will traditional grocers get into quick commerce?
- How big will AMZN be in sub-same-day delivery?
Please email questions to .
Hedgeye clients can get a 20% off coupon to subscribe using code HEDGEYE20.
Changes to the Position Monitor:
We have made several changes to the Hedgeye Restaurant Position Monitor. For the first time in nearly two years, BYND is not our #1 best Idea short. SG has replaced it, one of the worst-positioned, unprofitable companies to come public in a long time. SHAK remains #2, and we have added PTLO as #3, and CMG and PLAY round out the top five. We also remain cautious on casual dining and food service as a secular theme.
Taking SBUX off the LONG list
- China will be a drag for some time
- Higher gas prices will hut the afternoon daypart
- Earning estimates are too high
Adding CMG to the SHORT list
- Slowing leverage in the business model
- Is the CMG stage-gate process is getting stale?
- CMG "AUVs above $2.5mm with margins at or above 25%; all of which is a question of when not if?" Not so fast!
Adding PTLO to the SHORT list
- Margin estimates for 1H22 are aggressive
- An early-stage growth company in a challenging market
- Store openings may be at risk
Consumer Spending Metrics slowed WoW
- ShopperTrak's total retail traffic was down (36.6%) on a two-year stack for the week ending March 5th, representing a (5.9%) w/w decline.
- IRI CPG spending was +5% y/y for the week ending February 27th but (4%) w/w with Total Edible +6% y/y and (3%) w/w, Perishables +7% y/y and (1%) w/w, and Total Non-Edible +3% y/y and (7%) w/w.
- OpenTable shows US full-book restaurants were down (10%-15%) for the week of March 11th compared to 2019 after being flattish over the weekend of March 6th, which are both (5%) declines w/w.
