LIVE Q&A
Tom and Will discussed the Macro Quad framework, how we're using MicroQuad/estimate momentum trends for relevant ETFs (XLV, XHS, XHE) and our health care stocks, reviewed health care labor trends, and answered timely questions on ATIP, ONEM, AMN/CCRN, ACHC, and ARKG. If you have follow-up questions or feedback on anything just email .
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CLICK HERE to watch and access the presentation materials
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Time Stamps & Quick Notes
00:15 – Intro, Position Monitor Update (TXG new on the short side, GDRX mistake/bottom of long bench, doing more on ETFs)
02:06 – Estimate Trend Update & MicroQuads vs. Macro Quad Framework – why we have a short bias, how we’re using the MicroQuads for screening/idea generation or confirmation (BDX, BAX, TXG, EXAS)
08:09 – ETF Back Tests (XLV, XBI, XHE, XHS)
09:28 – Coming out of Omicron, non-COVID occupancy breaking out, critical staffing shortages still high, and health care labor demand at all-time highs; unemployment rate vs. pent-up demand (slides 9-16)
16:06 – Psych hospitals & mental health – shifting sites of care (inpatient losing), LFST provider tracker looks strong
18:10 – ONEM provider tracker (+ net adds)
18:52 – Staffing Shortages – impact on temp staffing and pricing
20:00 – ATIP update – therapist tracker
21:04 – Newer process (ETFs & Step-Outs – XBI, XLV; ABMD (+), DXCM (-))
25:40 – Factor Exposures (market cap, analyst ratings, etc.) and Forecast Algos
29:50 – Q&A
- 30:00 – ATIP, refi rate and [misplaced] confidence in management
- 37:00 – AMN, CCRN, capacity to meet health care demand
- 42:40 – ONEM, primary care multiples, why we like hybrid care #flow matters
- 46:40 – ACHC, why we’re still short
- 54:30 – MicroQuad / Estimate Momentum Trend
- 56:30 – ARKG playbook
As always, all data available upon request, and reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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