Hong Kong's TFR Drops. NewsWire

NewsWire: 3/8/22

• In 2021, the number of Hong Kong births fell to a record low. Births declined -14% from 2020 and are now below 40,000. (Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department)
  
• NH: Hong Kong has just released its preliminary 2021 vital statistics. Let’s explore the numbers. 
• In 2021, Hong Kong’s total fertility rate (TFR) came in at 0.77. This is down from 0.88 in the prior year. 

• Hong Kong’s TFR is even lower than South Korea’s (0.81), which is the lowest of any country. (See “South Korea’s TFR Drops Again.”) In fairness, though, we can't really compare a city with a country. A better TFR comparison would be Hong Kong v. Seoul. And Seoul, in 2020, weighed in with a TFR of 0.64. In 2021, Seoul no doubt fell further. So once again, South Korea wins the empty-crib prize.
• In absolute numbers, Hong Kong births fell from 43K in 2020 to 37K in 2021. That’s a -14% decrease. Deaths rose slightly from 50.7K in 2020 to 51.2K in 2021. That’s a +1% increase. Overall, Hong Kong’s "natural increase" was -14K people.

• Hong Kong's fertility drastically fell between the 1970s and the 1990s. And after a slight rebound in the 2000s, it has continued to decline since the 2010s. The city is experiencing many of the same cultural forces driving down fertility in other East Asian nations. (See “Births in China Continue to Fall.”) I also suspect draconian C19 lockdowns and the uncertainty about the city's political future probably deterred some people from conceiving. The emigration of young adults has also ramped up in response to China's political crackdown. But it's uncertain if this would lower TFR--unless you could demonstrate that young adults who want to bear children are emigrating more than those who do not. It's possible, maybe even plausible. But I have seen no data bearing on this.
• One final note: The number of marriages fell to 26.8K. That’s a -4% YoY decrease and marks four consecutive years of decline. Over the last ten years, the number of marriages has fallen by a staggering -56%.