Beer sales decline (BUD, TAP, SAM, STZ)
Off-premise beer sales are down 3.6% for the YTD period through February 20 according to IRI. The sell through at retail reflects the pessimistic outlook from the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) in February. The NBWA’s Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) had a reading of 43 in February down from 46 in January. Four sub-sectors of beer had YOY growth in sales with imports +2.1%, domestic super-premium +0.2%, FMBs +3.1%, and non-alcoholic +16.9%. Craft beer sales were down 8.5% while hard seltzer decreased 1.1%. Constellation Brands had the largest share growth up 1.3% points to 14.9% driven by Modelo up 1.2% points to 7.9%. Anheuser Busch InBev’s share fell 1% point to 37.0% while Molson Coors’ share fell 0.5% point to 17.4%. White Claw’s share increased 0.06% to 4.1% while Truly lost 0.1% to 2.4%. Sales of both Truly and White Claw were down YOY. The bright spot for Boston Beer was 20% growth for Twisted Tea, gaining 0.3% point to 1.7% share. Industry sales are not as bleak when adding the on-premise growth. Industry participants are also waiting for the comparison base to change in March.
Texas on-premise soars in February (TAP, BUD)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts monthly. In February, tax receipts were up 64.7% YOY, accelerating from 49.5% in January. Sales in the smaller month of February fell 17.7% MOM. The comparison in March is easy and an in-person NCAA men’s basketball tournament will boost bar sales. Looking further into April on-premise trends may have a headwind with the current MLB lockout.
The mood of Americans DROPs (KR)
According to the CivicScience Well-Being index, the invasion of Ukraine is weighing on the minds of Americans. In the past week, the index fell from 55% to 51% as seen in the chart below. The index calculates well-being as an estimated percentage of the population who report how strongly they are feeling positive or negative emotions. The last major dip in the index in August 2021 occurred as the Delta variant spread. By age, it is Generation X that appears the most affected recently while the well-being of Americans aged 18 through 34 was relatively unaffected in recent weeks. Democrats and Republicans both saw a similar drop in well-being in the past two weeks which is an uncommon occurrence for the index. The CNN effect of watching wars play out on TV has been a damper on eating out in the past.
