Trendspotting: South Korea's TFR Drops Again

NewsWire: 3/2/22

• In 2021, South Korea’s total fertility rate fell once more, to 0.81. The country continues to have the lowest fertility rate in the world. (The Korea Herald)
  
• NH: Here we go again. Statistics Korea has just released its preliminary birth and death data for 2021. And the country broke another fertility record.
• In 2021, South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) came in at a record low of 0.81. This is down from 0.84 in 2020. South Korea continues to have the lowest TFR in the world. (See “South Korea's Falling Fertility Keeps Breaking Records.”)
• In absolute numbers, births declined from 272K in 2020 to 261K in 2021. That’s a decrease of -4.35%. Conversely, deaths rose from 305K in 2020 to 318K in 2021. That’s a +4.21% increase. In all, South Korea’s natural "increase" was -53K people. 

• We have written numerous NewsWires on South Korea's extensive responses to its low fertility. The government now offers baby bonuses to new parents and has turned to AI to “optimize” infertility treatment. The city of Seoul has even started offering its own payments to parents. (See “South Korea Turns to AI for Infertility Treatment,” “Seoul Turns to Baby Bonuses,” and “Nations Labor to Raise Their Birthrates.”) But none of these responses have reversed the downward trend.
• Ultimately, the country faces a mountain of cultural drivers keeping its TFR low. These include high rates of educational attainment, rapid urbanization, emphasis on marketplace individualism, and--a bit counterintuitively--a strong Confucian ethic. (See “South Korea's Total Fertility Rate Falls Below One.”)
• The recent eruption of an anti-feminist movement led by young men, now becoming a political force in South Korea, may be either a symptom or another compounding cause of the dramatic TFR fall. In any case, the worsening relationship between the sexes may suggest that the ongoing decline in marriages and subsequently births is not about to turn around anytime soon. In 2020, the number of couples tying the knot fell by -10.7% YoY. (See "Rising Anti-Feminism Among South Korea’s Young Men" and "Marriages in South Korea Sink to a Record Low.")