Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin.
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What comes next in the analysis is more like risk mitigation, and overcoming my biases that would keep me from a good idea. In this case, the big thing that makes a difference is the January peak in the Omicron wave that suppressed non-COVID hospital volume down to 0% year-over-year, but as Omicron has faded, those non-COVID hospital stays have accelerated to +8% as we head into March. That re-acceleration in hospital volume will be a tailwind for Med Tech generally, and BAX and BDX specifically. Taking a fast step forward we screened company core growth against thousands of Health Care Macro series which tells us which trends to keep an eye on in case things change, but also how the quarter is shaping up. With the Quad Playbook as our support, filling in details becomes a much easier and more productive exercise. It’s not easy, but the hardest part is getting past the old system and embracing a new one. |
